This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Kenta Maeda: Pitcher, Dodgers
There is an abundance of top-tier pitching on Wednesday’s main slate. On FanDuel there are four pitchers priced above $10,000. Maeda is not among them, but he’s one of the top pitchers in the Bales Player Model at $8,7000, with a 73 percent Bargain Rating. Maeda has favorable Vegas data as a -216 moneyline home favorite, and pitchers at home with comparable odds to win have historically averaged a +4.17 Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool):
Maeda got off to a rough start this season, allowing three or more earned runs in his first four starts. However, since then Maeda has struck out eight batters in back-to-back games, and he boasts the slate’s third-highest K Preditcion at 7.6. His Statcast data is favorable with a recent batted ball distance of 182 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and fly ball rate of 25 percent. Given the elite arms in tonight’s nine-game slate, Maeda will likely have high ownership, which Pro subscribers can review across guaranteed prize pools of all stakes via our DFS Ownership Dashboard after lineups lock.
Nick Castellanos: Third Base, Tigers
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top five-man DraftKings stacks belongs to the Detroit Tigers, who have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 4.9 runs:
Expected to his cleanup (per our Lineups page), Castellanos has strong Statcast data with a recent batted ball distance of 242 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 44 percent. Castellanos owns a .338 wOBA and .198 ISO against right-handed pitchers and is facing Diamondbacks righty Zach Godley, who has a 1.559 WHIP and the slate’s third-highest HR/9 at 1.664.
Matt Carpenter: First Base, Cardinals
Looking at our Vegas Dashboard, you can see the Cardinals have an implied total of 4.1 runs, which isn’t enticing. Batters have historically averaged a 0.00 Plus/Minus with comparable implied totals. The Cardinals also have a mediocre Team Value Rating of 59:
Bland Vegas data aside, Carpenter has strong Statcast data with a recent batted ball distance of 248 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 50 percent. He also faces Tom Koehler, who has some of the worst Statcast data on the slate with a recent batted ball distance of 249 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, hard hit rate of 57 percent, and fly ball rate of 53 percent. Carpenter could be a nice pivot off of the chalkier first basemen.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
