This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Patrick Corbin: Pitcher, Diamondbacks
Corbin presents a dilemma for today’s slate. He’s the most expensive pitcher on both sites, yet his Vegas data is pedestrian. His opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs ranks just third, and his moneyline odds of +115 make him a slight underdog. He is much more affordable on FanDuel with his 99% Bargain Rating, and historically pitchers with comparable salaries, moneyline odds, and opponent implied team totals have performed well at low ownership (per the Trends tool):
Despite his Vegas data, there’s a lot to like with Corbin. He has a nice matchup vs. the Dodgers, whose projected lineup has struck out in 31.6% of at-bats against left-handers over the past month, and Corbin’s K Prediction of 8.6 is the top mark on the slate. The Statcast data from his two recent starts is also solid, with a recent average distance of 198 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph, and 32% fly-ball rate. It will be interesting to see if his peripheral stats attract DFS players or if his Vegas data keeps his ownership largely depressed.
Aaron Altherr: Outfielder, Phillies
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the TheSportsGeek Model belongs to the Phillies, who are implied for a healthy 4.8 runs:
The Phillies have the pleasure of facing Giants righty Chris Stratton, who has the slate’s worst Statcast data with a recent batted-ball distance of 264 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard-hit rate of 62%.
Aaron Altherr stands out as one of the highest-rated batters in the slate with strong Statcast data and a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +43. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied team totals, and Statcast data have produced a Plus/Minus of +0.85 — and similar RBBLs boost the Plus/Minus to +2.91.
Adam Jones: Outfielder, Orioles
Team Value Rating is a FantasyLabs metric that measures which teams offer the most value based on their implied team totals and player salaries. On today’s DraftKings slate, the Orioles have the highest TVR, and their implied total of 5.1 runs is the second-highest mark:
The Orioles will take on Royals pitcher Eric Skoglund, who is tied with Stratton for fastest exit velocity and highest hard-hit rate on the slate at 96 mph and 62%.
Jones has posted a -0.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 36% Consistency over the past 15 days, but his RBBL of +63 suggests that he has been unlucky in his fantasy production. His average distance of 229 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 46% are more than serviceable — far surpassing his 12-month averages — giving him a distance differential of +20 feet, velocity differential of +5 mph, and hard-hit differential of +14 percentage points.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Patrick Corbin
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
