This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
James Paxton: Pitcher, Mariners
We have a decent pitching slate on tap for Wednesday. If you don’t want to pay up for Max Scherzer, look no further than Paxton. He has a salary of just $9,800 on FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating. Additionally, Paxton is in an excellent spot against a Rangers team implied for only 3.1 runs. Moreover, the Mariners are sizeable moneyline favorites (-247), and Paxton’s 7.7 K Prediction is the third-best mark on the slate. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been excellent investments on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
Overall, Paxton has an extremely favorable matchup, as the projected Rangers lineup has a 27.7% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. The Rangers rank 22nd in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), per FanGraphs. It’s possible that Paxton could have lower ownership than Scherzer.
Nolan Arenado: Third Baseman, Rockies
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, who have an impressive 6.6-run implied total:
Arenado is in a nuclear spot with an absurd .533 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .352 isolated power (ISO) against lefties over the past 12 months. Aside from being at Coors Field, which has historically yielded a +1.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 47% Consistency, Arendo is in strong recent batted-ball form over the past 15 days, sporting a 93-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate.
Ross Stripling: Pitcher, Dodgers
With a 51% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, Stripling is a solid SP2 candidate. He owns an excellent 7.2 K Prediction against a Phillies team implied for a paltry 3.3 runs. Further, the Dodgers are one of the larger favorites on the night with -170 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries ($7,300), K Predictions, and Vegas data have been great value plays on DraftKings:
The Phillies have a K-heavy projected lineup with a 29.6% strikeout rate against righties over the past year, and they rank 23rd in wRC+ this season. Stripling is in great form, sporting a 190-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity, and absurdly low 14% hard-hit rate. It’s difficult not to give Stripling a look considering that he’s averaging a +7.07 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 75% Consistency over the past month. That said, since comparable pitchers have averaged 30.5% ownership in large-field tournaments, Stripling may be someone to fade in guaranteed prize pools if you’re looking to go contrarian.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: James Paxton
Photo credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
