This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Zack Godley: Pitcher, Diamondbacks
Godley costs just $7,600 on DraftKings with an 89% Bargain Rating for Wednesday’s main slate. He’s been serviceable this season, posting a +1.49 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency. Further, Godley’s K Prediction of 8.0 leads the slate, and the Diamondbacks are slight -125 moneyline favorites. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas odds have been quite consistent, although they have also come with high ownership (per our Trends tool):
The matchup is softened now that Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager is on the DL: The projected Dodgers lineup has a 29.9% strikeout rate and low .274 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months. In addition to having a favorable matchup, Godley has stellar recent batted-ball data with a 190-foot average distance, 89-mph exit velocity, and a 20% fly-ball rate.
Eugenio Suarez: Third Baseman, Reds
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Reds, who are implied for a slate-high 5.0 runs:
The Reds take on Brewers lefty Wade Miley, who is making his first start of the season. Over the past 12 months, Miley has a slate-worst 1.90 WHIP and 1.62 HR/9. Suarez has historically crushed lefties, sporting a .376 wOBA and .209 isolated power (ISO). Suarez is in good form with a +5.29 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past 10 games, and he has also been swinging the bat well, as he owns positive recent batted-ball differentials in average distance (+21 feet), exit velocity (+5 mph), and hard-hit rate (+21 percentage points). Hitters with comparable data have historically averaged a +2.24 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Jorge Soler: Outfielder, Royals
Soler has been crushing the baseball as of late, boasting a recent average distance of 246 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard-hit rate of 40%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him a distance differential of +33 feet, velocity differential of +2 mph, and hard-hit differential of +3 percentage points. His +38 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that Soler is hitting the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates. Hitters with comparable data have historically averaged a +2.60 FanDuel Plus/Minus with very low ownership:
Soler will face Boston lefty Drew Pomeranz, who is off to a rough start to the season, allowing seven earned runs and 11 hits in his first two outings. Further, he has the worst recent batted-ball data on the early slate, owning a 243-foot recent average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 40% hard-hit rate. The stars are aligning for Soler to see some progression.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Eugenio Suarez
Photo credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
