This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
Each slate is different, but in Sales’ last start (May 11), ownership was flat among the high-priced pitchers (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
That could be the case again tonight, as the slate lacks a standout option in our Models.
Sale trails only Max Scherzer with a massive 9.4 K Prediction against an Athletics team tied for a slate-low implied total of 3.3 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). Sale also trails only Scherzer with his 12.79 K/9 over the past 12 months. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.62 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 64.7% Consistency Rating.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
If you’re looking to pivot off Sale, Scherzer is the clear candidate. He’s $700 more expensive on DraftKings and facing the Yankees, although his opponent implied total of 3.3 runs is tied for the slate’s lowest-mark. His 10.5 K Prediction is rare and, when paired with his immaculate Vegas data, it has provided a predictably strong DraftKings performance (per our Trends tool):
Scherzer’s .873 WHIP and 12.83 SO/9 lead the slate. His -91 Recent Batted Ball Luck is concerning, but he’s unlikely to have exorbitant ownership because of the other high-priced options on the slate, and he carries immense upside in guaranteed prize pools with his strikeout projection and Vegas data.
J.D. Martinez: Outfielder, Red Sox
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Red Sox, who are implied for a slate-high 5.3 runs and 79 Team Value Rating:
The Red Sox have a prime matchup against Athletics righty Trevor Cahill, who has been dealing with an elbow injury and owns a 1.719 WHIP and 2.129 HR/9 over the past year.
Overall, it’s an excellent matchup for J.D. Martinez, who boasts exceptional recent batted-ball data with a 239-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 45% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable lineup spots, implied totals, and recent batted-ball data have averaged a +2.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Martinez is a solid value with an 84% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
