This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Giancarlo Stanton: Outfielder, Yankees
The weather can be an extremely underrated aspect of MLB DFS. There are a few spots on today’s slate where the weather could be a factor, but perhaps none more so than the Yankees-Rays game. Per the Lineups tool, there is currently projected to a be a wind of 17 miles per hour blowing out to center field:
The over has historically hit at a 54.1% clip with a wind of at least eight miles per hour blowing out to center (per Bet Labs), which puts both of these offenses squarely on the radar for today’s slate. The Yankees in particular could have a field day against Rays left-hander Blake Snell thanks to their immense power. Their lineup is headlined by Stanton, who has posted a ridiculous .517 wOBA and .444 ISO against left-handed pitching over the past 12 months. He has had a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past four games, but his average batted-ball distance of 249 feet and hard-hit rate of 60% over that time frame suggest that he’s still making elite contact.
Felix Hernandez: Starting Pitcher, Mariners
Hernandez is trying to put an injury-riddled 2017 behind him, and he got off to a fantastic start on Opening Day. His traditional numbers were solid enough — zero earned runs and four strikeouts over 5.1 innings pitched — and his Statcast data were downright filthy. He posted an average batted-ball distance of 156 feet, exit velocity of 81 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of just 7%, and pitchers with comparable marks and salaries have historically dominated on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
It’s only one start, but its hard not to get excited about King Felix’s potential on today’s slate. He’s in a potentially elite spot against the Giants, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .305 over the past 12 months. AT&T Park in San Francisco has also historically been an extreme pitcher’s park, and it rewards Hernandez with a perfect 100 Park Factor.
Justin Smoak: First Base, Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are currently implied for 5.4 runs, which is the top mark on the main slate by a significant margin. The Jays are also one of the more affordable teams on FanDuel, sporting an elite Team Value Rating of 91:
Smoak in particular has a Bargain Rating of 82 percent, and he’s coming off a whale of a 2017 season. He smoked 38 home runs (pun intended) en route to his first All-Star appearance, and his early returns in 2018 suggest that last year’s production was no fluke. He’s posted an average distance of 266 feet through his first five games, which represents an increase of +32 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, players with comparable distances and implied team totals have posted a Plus/Minus of +2.74 on FanDuel.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Felix Hernandez
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
