This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Alex Wood: Pitcher, Dodgers
Wednesday night’s main slate is absent of any sure-thing pitching options. Wood got knocked around against the Diamondbacks in his last start, but he returns home to face the A’s, and he has typically done well as a home favorite. Historically, Wood has averaged 36.42 FanDuel points with a +7.02 Plus/Minus and 67.4% Consistency Rating when favored at home (per our Trends tool):
He’ll have his work cut out for him against a projected lineup that has a 22.2% strikeout rate and .363 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against left-handed pitching over the past 12 months, but over that time Wood has a slate-best 1.00 WHIP and second-best HR/9 (0.85). The A’s are currently implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs. In fact, they’re the only team on the main slate implied for fewer than 3.9 runs. Consequently, the Dodgers are the largest favorite Wednesday night with -186 moneyline odds.
Shin-Soo Choo: Outfielder, Rangers
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Rangers are implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs against 21-year-old Jaime Barria, who is making his MLB debut. They also have the highest Team Value Rating (95) on the DraftKings main slate:
Choo is off to an excellent start with a +2.95 Plus/Minus on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He has a .199 isolated power (ISO) against righties in the past 12 months, along with a respectable .344 wOBA. Choo isn’t hitting the ball far this season (197-foot average distance over the past 15 days), but he’s making solid contact with a 45% hard-hit rate and 93-mph exit velocity. Choo is the projected leadoff batter, and historically No. 1 hitters in games with comparable implied run totals have yielded an average 9.51 DraftKings points per game with a +1.35 Plus/Minus.
Todd Frazier: Third Baseman, Mets
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top stacks on DraftKings in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Mets, who are implied for 4.7 runs against the Marlins:
Frazier has the perfect blend of power and salary savings, as he has an 81% Bargain Rating on DraftKings while sporting a .328 ISO and .366 wOBA. Frazier’s .166 ISO Differential is the third-best mark among third basemen. He’ll take on left-handed Jarlin Garcia, who has some questionable Statcast data over his last two starts with a recent average distance of 216 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard-hit rate of 38%. Frazier, on the other hand, has a recent average distance of 215 feet, exit velocity of 32 mph, and hard-hit rate of 40%. Historically, batters with comparable metrics and implied run totals have averaged a +1.16 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Alex Wood
Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
