This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Lance McCullers: Pitcher, Astros
McCullers and Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw take the mound on the same day for the fifth time this month. FanDuel ownership in their previous four starts hasn’t been as one-sided as you might expect, but it still largely favors Kershaw:
McCullers is almost $3,000 cheaper than Kershaw, and both pitchers carry moneylines greater than -200 and comparable Statcast data. McCullers and Kershaw have both excelled at home during their careers, but McCullers leads all pitchers with an 87.5 percent Consistency Rating (minimum 10 home starts) and ranks second with a +13.9 FanDuel Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). McCullers also presently leads all pitchers with a 7.5 K Prediction, and he may continue to offer an edge at reduced ownership, which Pro subscribers can review shortly after lock in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Gregor Blanco: Outfielder, Diamondbacks
Blanco is projected to bat leadoff (per our Lineups page) for a Diamondbacks team presently leading the slate with 6.2 implied runs. He also costs $2,400 on FanDuel, and cheap leadoff hitters for teams with comparable Vegas data have normally provided value more times than not:
White Sox starter Dylan Covey has surrendered two home runs in four straight starts, and he’s a bottom-two pitcher on the slate in WHIP, SO/9, and HR/9 over the past 12 months. The Diamondbacks will likely have high ownership, as they currently lead all teams in Team Value Rating on DraftKings (84) and FanDuel (90), and Blanco will likely be a key component of many Diamondbacks stacks.
Carlos Beltran: Outfielder, Astros
Beltran ranks second among projected starting outfielders in Recent Batted Ball Luck (63), recent fly ball rate (62 percent), and Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel. We can utilize the Lineup Builder to generate a cheap Astros stack that rates highly in the Bales Model:
Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann claims the third-worst HR/9 (1.98) and SO/9 (5.63) over the last 12 months. He’s also allowed at least four runs and one home run in six of his last seven starts. The Astros are presently implied to score 5.2 runs, the third-highest mark in the slate, and they lead the slate with an Opponent Bullpen Rating of 95. The contrarian DraftKings stack above may be extremely volatile, as it includes three players with a Recent Batted Ball Luck of at least 49, and all four have recorded a recent fly ball rate of at least 41 percent. With a batted ball distance of 246 feet over the last 15 days, Beltran is currently the most powerful of the team’s power hitters.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
