This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
Rostering Sale at his high salary will be difficult, but the high-stakes players are likely to do it. He was priced similarly for his last start (4/27), and the sharps rostered him at a much higher rate than the low-stakes players (via our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Sale is currently a massive favorite with a -240 moneyline, and he trails only Alex Wood with his K prediction (8.0). Historically, pitchers with comparable moneyline odds, K predictions, and salaries have averaged a +3.95 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. The issue with Sale isn’t so much whether he’s likely to hit value; it’s whether he crushes enough in order to make up for his high salary and ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Tim Beckham: Short Stop, Rays
Finding cheap hitters is important if you’re looking to squeeze in a stud pitcher. The Rays are cheap and could have low ownership today on account of their low implied total (3.6 runs). One intriguing option is Beckham. He’s projected near the bottom of the order (per our Lineups page) and has a low Park Factor in Miami of 14, but over the last 15 days he’s crushed the ball with an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour. Historically, DraftKings batters with comparable salaries, lineup spots, implied team totals, and Park Factors have still been viable with high recent exit velocities (per our Trends tool):
Beckham’s Recent Batted Ball Luck Score currently stands at 33, and when that’s added to the trend above the historical Plus/Minus jumps to +1.05 and the ownership drops to 1.3 percent.
Matt Holliday: First Base/Outfielder, Yankees
Using the Vegas Dashboard, we can sort by Team Value Rating to identify teams whose players are underpriced relative to their implied totals. Today, the teams with the most value are the Yankees and Red Sox:
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The Yankees (currently implied for 5.1 runs) dominate the five-man DraftKings stacks, occupying five of the six highest spots in the Bales Player Model.
Holliday in particular is intriguing. He has crushed the ball over the last 15 days with batted ball, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of 36 feet, three mph, and 14 percentage points. Batters with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus on FanDuel of +2.83. When implied total is added to the above trend, the Plus/Minus balloons to +4.16. Holliday also sports a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on FanDuel, the second-highest mark on his team.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
