This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Trea Turner: Shortstop/Outfielder, Nationals
Turner is a unique player who now he gets to put his talents on display at the preeminent park for fantasy success, Coors Field. He’s second among all players on the slate in stolen bases per game at .424, and players with comparable steal numbers have historically done well at Coors (per the Trends Tool):
What sets Turner apart, though, is the damage he can do with his bat. He has an ISO of .250 against right-handed pitchers, and hitters with comparable ISOs have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.24 on DraftKings in Colorado. There is not a single other player in the database to play at Coors with an ISO of at least .200 and an average of at least 0.3 stolen bases per game. Turner is easily one of the highest-rated players in our Player Models.
Robert Gsellman: Pitcher, Mets
High-stakes players sometimes like to load up on the Coors bats, and to do that they often roster lower-priced pitchers. On Monday, one of those guys was Jesse Chavez in multi-entry tournaments. He had a solid K Prediction of 6.4, and the team he faced was implied for only 3.6 runs. Because he was much more popular in the $444 GPP than the $4 GPP, he had the highest Volatility Rating in our DFS Ownership Dashboard:
A high-stakes favorite on today’s slate could be Gsellman, who has an almost identical K Prediction and an even lower opponent implied total of 3.3 runs. He’s also allowed an average batted ball distance of only 177 feet over the last 15 days, the best mark on the slate. Pitchers with comparable recent batted ball distances and Vegas data have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.90 on FanDuel. Gsellman hasn’t gotten off to a great start this season, but his Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of 80 suggests he’s been unlucky, which could potentially keep his ownership down in guaranteed prize pools.
The weather for the Braves-Mets game currently looks troublesome (79 percent chance of precipitation), so be sure to monitor the forecast throughout the day.
Tyler Collins: Outfielder, Tigers
Using the Vegas Dashboard, we can sort by Team Value Rating to identify teams whose players are underpriced relative to their implied totals. Today, the teams with the most value are the A’s, Tigers, and Diamondbacks:
From these teams one batter who stands out is Collins, who’s only $2,600 on DraftKings and currently projected to bat second for the Tigers (per our Lineups page). He’s also been unlucky to start the season, boasting a Recent BBL Score of 84 over the last 15 days. Batters with comparable salaries, lineup spots, and Recent BBL Scores have a Plus/Minus of +3.35 on DraftKings and boast a Consistency Rating of over 61 percent. You can easily use the Lineup Builder to pair a cheap hitter like Collins with some of the more expensive stacks or a stud pitcher like Clayton Kershaw.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
