This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Luis Severino: Pitcher, Yankees
Paying up for Severino could be the path of least resistance, and he is much more affordable on FanDuel with his 98% Bargain Rating. The opposing Phillies are implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs, and their projected lineup strikes out at an above-average rate against right-handed pitchers (27.4%). Unsurprisingly, Severino sports a slate-leading 8.7 K Prediction. Historically, similarly priced pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have smashed on FanDuel at high ownership (per the Trends tool):
Before you check in on Severino’s Statcast data, make sure you have an extra pair of pants ready. He boasts an absurd recent batted-ball distance of 175 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 23%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of -23 feet, -4 mph, and -7 percentage points. With Corey Kluber, James Paxton, and Charlie Morton also pitching today, Severino could have a lower ownership rate than he otherwise might with these peripheral stats.
Freddy Peralta: Pitcher, Brewers
Peralta could be a strong salary-saving SP2 on DraftKings, as he’s only $7,900 and facing a Royals team implied for 3.3 runs. His 0.92 WHIP and 14.80 SO/9 over the past 12 months are both top-two in the slate, and the Brewers are today’s second-highest moneyline favorite (-228) after significant line movement in their favor (per our Vegas Dashboard):
Peralta’s in a nut matchup against a projected Royals lineup with a slate-high 31.4% strikeout rate and slate-low .257 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Similarly priced pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged an absurd +7.01 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 78.3% Consistency Rating.
Mookie Betts: Outfielder, Red Sox
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Red Sox, who are implied for a slate-high 5.7 runs and top-two 75 Team Value Rating:
It’s a smash spot for the Red Sox against Angels lefty John Lamb, who recently has spent the majority of his time in Triple-A. In limited MLB action this season, he has averaged a pathetic 3.33 HR/9. Boston’s projected lineup also owns a top-three .338 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months.
Leading off, Mookie Betts could be the player most likely to erupt given his fantastic recent batted-ball data, including a 234-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 45% fly-ball rate. Historically, hitters with comparable lineup spots, implied totals and recent batted-ball data have averaged a +1.63 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Luis Severino
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
