This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Miles Mikolas: Pitcher, Cardinals
There are a few intriguing pitching options today, including Mikolas, who is the largest favorite (-181 moneyline odds) and has a low opponent implied total (3.6 runs). Also, given his low 6.72 SO/9 over the past 12 months, he has an uncharacteristically high 7.1 K Prediction. Per the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions historically have been safe investments on DraftKings:
Mikolas is a strong pitcher with a 0.98 WHIP and slate-low 0.70 HR/9 over the past year, and his mediocre strikeout history could result in diminished ownership despite his elite matchup against the Padres, whose projected lineup has a juicy 33.5% strikeout rate and a pathetic .284 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Jorge Soler: Outfielder, Royals
The Royals offer a ton of upside today. They’re taking on Reds right-hander Sal Romano, who over his past two starts has allowed a recent-batted ball distance of 254 feet. Additionally, Romano has been absolutely brutalized over the past month:
The Royals are just outside of the top tier with their implied total of 4.8 runs, and their 85 Team Value Rating is by far the highest mark on DraftKings (per our Vegas Dashboard):
Jorge Soler is projected to be back in the Royals lineup today (toe) and could be a differentiator as the No. 6 batter. He has impressive strong recent Statcast data with an average batted-ball distance of 229 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph and hard-hit rate of 57%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of +15 feet, +2 mph, and +17 percentage points. His +52 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that he has hit the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates. Hitters with comparable Vegas data, lineup spots and Statcast data have historically averaged a +1.06 DraftKings Plus/Minus at a low 6.7% ownership.
Scooter Gennett: Second Baseman, Reds
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top non-Royals five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model comes from the same game, as the Reds are implied for a healthy 4.8 runs:
They have a lot of upside against Royals righty Ian Kennedy, who owns a mediocre 1.51 WHIP. His 1.98 HR/9 over the past 12 months is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Four of the five stacked batters own recent distance averages of at least 230 feet and exit velocities of at least 95 mph. The Reds have also smashed right-handed pitching with a .335 wOBA over the past year. One player who especially stands out is No. 4 hitter Scooter Gennett. Over the past month, he’s averaged 10.4 DraftKings points per game with a 47% Consistency Rate, and his .391 wOBA and .239 ISO lead today’s projected Reds lineup.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Scooter Gennett
Photo credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
