This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Corey Kluber: Pitcher, Indians
Each slate is different, but the last time Kluber graced a slate with both Luis Severino and Lance McCullers was April 22, and it was clear whom sharp high-stakes tournament players preferred as their top pitching option (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
The highest-priced pitcher across both sites, Kluber is in an interesting spot today, as the opposing Brewers’ implied total of 3.4 runs is the second lowest on the slate (per our Vegas Dashboard), but they sport a notably low 22.1% strikeout rate and potentially imposing .346 wOBA.
Kluber has seen a price increase of $2,500 on DraftKings over the past month, but that might be warranted, given that he’s smashed salary-based expectations, averaging a +4.03 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a massive 83% Consistency Rating on the year. Only Rich Hill (8.7) owns a higher K Prediction than Kluber (8.5), despite his less than ideal matchup.
Aaron Nola: Pitcher, Phillies
If you’re looking to pivot off Kluber, Nola is an option, as he’s $3,500 cheaper and facing a Giants team currently implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs. His 7.3 K Prediction is solid, and he also has strong recent Statcast data with a batted-ball distance of 190 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 22% and 35%. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions, and Statcast data have historically provided tremendous value on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Nola is a solid pitcher with a 1.12 WHIP, 0.87 HR/9, and 9.34 SO/9 over the past 12 months. He’s in an excellent matchup against a projected Giants lineup that has a juicy 26.9% strikeout rate and a subpar .305 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past year.
Nolan Arenado: Third Baseman, Rockies
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, who will take on Angels lefty Andrew Heaney and his slate-leading 3.27 HR/9 at Coors Field:
The Rockies are implied for a slate-high 5.5 runs, and they have the upside for more, considering that they are at the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, where batters have historically averaged an astounding +1.83 Plus/Minus. Intriguingly, because of the loaded pitching slate, the Rockies might have lower ownership than usual.
Nolan Arenado is one of the top players in the Model, carrying an impressive recent batted-ball distance of 257 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 48% and 44%.
Bonus player: I also like Trevor Story. He and Arenado are both on the positive sides of their wOBA and ISO splits:
Story’s recent Statcast data is almost identical to Arenado’s, as he boasts a recent average distance of 257 feet and exit velocity of 96 mph. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him a distance differential of +24 feet and velocity differential of +4 mph.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado
Photo credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
