This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Kenta Maeda: Pitcher, Dodgers
If you do not want to pay all the way up for pitcher Charlie Morton, consider Maeda as an alternative. He stands out with his -173 moneyline odds and stellar 9.3 K Prediction and also is tied for the lowest recent exit velocity (86 mph) among today’s starting pitchers. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions and Statcast numbers have been chalky, but they have also been exceptionally rare and consistent on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Maeda has a favorable matchup, as the projected Phillies lineup owns a 28.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Plus, the Phillies are implied for a paltry 3.0 runs, the lowest total on the slate (per our Vegas Dashboard).
Andrew Benintendi: Outfielder, Red Sox
The Red Sox are intriguing. Even though there’s a game at Coors Field tonight, Boston is right in the mix with 5.6 implied runs and a 74 Team Value Rating on FanDuel:
Projected to hit second and sporting a batted-ball distance differential of +30 feet and .366 wOBA against right-handers, Benintendi is in a favorable spot against Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada, who has bottom-three marks on the slate with his 1.82 HR/9 and 1.55 WHIP over the past 12 months. Benintendi leads all Red Sox batters with his 82% FanDuel Bargain Rating, and Boston’s ownership will likely be reasonable given that there are 14 games in this Coors slate. Batters with comparable implied totals, distance differentials, and lineup spots have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.09 and 52.5% Consistency Rating.
Miguel Sano: First/Third Baseman, Twins
Finding cheap stacks is important if you’re looking to roster a high-end pitcher or some Coors batters. With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to find value on a team level. Of the non-Coors teams, the Twins currently lead the slate with an 82 Team Value Rating on DraftKings and have a healthy 4.8-run implied total:
The Twins have a prime matchup against Royals pitcher Danny Duffy, who owns an atrocious 237-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 47% fly-ball rate over his past two starts.
Overall, it’s an excellent matchup for Sano, as he owns a .351 wOBA and .244 isolated power (ISO) over the past year against lefties. In addition, his recent Statcast numbers are absurd, including a batted-ball distance of 285 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 62% and 50%. Historically, hitters with comparable implied run totals and recent batted-ball data have averaged a +0.79 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Miguel Sano
Photo credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
