This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
There are a lot of strong pitching options on today’s slate, but Sale possesses more strikeout upside than almost any MLB pitcher. He has a slate-high K/9 of 12.87 over the past 12 months, and he’s in a great pitching environment at Tropicana Field with a Park Rating of 85. Unsurprisingly, Sale carries a slate-high K Prediction of 9.7, and the Red Sox are today’s second-largest favorite (per our Vegas Dashboard):
He takes the mound against a projected Tampa Bay lineup that is implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs and owns a middling 24.7% strikeout rate against left handed-pitchers.
Much of his short-term Statcast data is subpar — he has a recent batted-ball distance of 232 feet and fly-ball rate of 53% — but he’s still managed to avoid substantial contact with his low 30% hard-hit rate. Regardless of his batted-ball data, he carries immense upside in guaranteed prize pools with his strikeout projection and Vegas data.
Gerrit Cole: Pitcher, Astros
Cole could act as a natural price pivot off of Sale in GPPs, but he will likely still be chalky as the Astros are the slate’s largest favorite. He’s facing the Giants, who are tied with the Rays for the slate’s lowest implied total at 2.8 runs. Cole’s 7.0 K Prediction is only the fifth-highest mark today, but comparably priced pitchers with similar Vegas data and strikeout upside have been reliable on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Cole, however, does have his issues. For starters, he’s facing a projected Giants lineup that owns a low 22.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Additionally, Cole is in poor recent form. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 230 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 60% and 56%. Historically, pitchers with comparable Statcast data have averaged a -1.74 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Francisco Cervelli: Catcher, Pirates
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. In this 15-game slate, a top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Pirates, implied for a healthy 5.1 runs against the Reds:
The Pirates have a prime matchup against Matt Harvey, who owns an atrocious 1.71 WHIP and 1.86 HR/9 over the past 12 months. He’s also allowed a slate-high 262-foot batted-ball distance over his last two starts.
Projected to bat third, Francisco Cervelli stands out with unreal Statcast numbers, including a recent batted-ball distance of 273 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard-hit rate of 56%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of +63 feet, +6 mph, and +25 percentage points. He’s one of five batters today with double-digit Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he’s also doing his part to get the ball in the air with a 62% fly-ball rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Francisco Cervelli
Photo credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
