This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
The highest-priced pitcher across both sites, Scherzer is in a nice spot today, as the opposing Pirates are implied for a slate-low 2.7 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard), and the Nationals have the second-largest moneyline odds at -236. Scherzer also sports the slate’s highest K Prediction (8.9), which combined with his Vegas data has historically provided tremendous value on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
Even so, his recent form makes him a less appealing cash game option than usual. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 44%. Historically, pitchers with comparable Statcast data have averaged a -4.47 FanDuel Plus/Minus. The upside of Scherzer is that he’s unlikely to have outlandish ownership with Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw on the slate, so he’s still more than viable as an option in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
Each slate is different, but in Sale’s last start (4/26), ownership was surprisingly flat among the high-priced pitchers on DraftKings (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
That could be the case again tonight, as the slate lacks a standout option in our Models. With the second-highest K prediction (8.3) on the slate, Sale ($12,400 on DraftKings) is in play as a natural price pivot off of Scherzer ($12,700), but he’s still considerably more expensive than a struggling Kershaw ($11,700). Sale leads the slate in Pro Trends and odds to win (-282 moneyline), and he’s facing a Royals team currently implied for just 2.9 runs.
Matt Carpenter: Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Cardinals
The Cardinals are implied for a slate-high 5.5 runs and boast an impressive 82 Team Value Rating on DraftKings. They’re set to square off against White Sox right-hander James Shields:
With a righty on the mound, Carpenter is projected to bat leadoff, and he’s crushed righties over the past 12 months with a .377 wOBA. Further, he has immaculate recent batted-ball data with a 254-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 51% fly-ball percentage. Given his average Plus/Minus of -3.37 over the past 10 games, his recent Statcast data and Recent Batted Ball Luck of +80 suggest he could be due for some progression. Comparably unlucky DraftKings batters hitting near the top of the lineup with similar implied totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.10.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Matt Carpenter
Photo credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
