This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Adam Wainwright: Pitcher, Cardinals
One of the highest-rated pitchers in the Bales Model, Wainwright has the fourth-highest K prediction at 6.9 and a low opponent implied run total at 3.5 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). Wainwright’s advanced stats are also positive with a recent batted ball distance of 193 feet, ground ball rate of 59 percent, and strike rate of 66 percent. His 37 percent hard hit rate is high but not disqualifying, and it’s likely that he’s pitched better than his recent production: He’s second in the slate with a Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of 70. Per the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable opponent implied totals, Rec BBL Scores, and ground ball and strike rates have done well on DraftKings:
With a 66 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, Wainwright is likely preferable there, but be sure to monitor the weather throughout the day: The Brewers-Cardinals game is currently forecast with a 72 percent chance of precipitation, making Wainwright an option only in guaranteed prize pools.
Bryce Harper: Outfield, Nationals
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the highest-rated five-man DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model is (predictably) the 1-2-3-4-5 stack of the Nationals, and there are other strong stacks centered around Washington’s projected No. 3 hitter:
The Nationals are second in the slate with an implied total of five runs, and Harper has an ISO of .210 vs. righties with a recent batted ball distance of 221 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard hit rate of 36 percent. As our Lineups page shows, Harper is the most expensive hitter on both sites, but he has a lot of potential against Diamondbacks starter Brandon Shipley, who’s a bottom-four pitcher with a 1.574 WHIP and 1.837 HR/9 over the last year.
Jose Reyes: Third Base, Mets
With a Bargain Rating of 90 percent, Reyes is an attractive FanDuel hitter. He has an ISO of .313 vs. lefties and has scored 20-plus FanDuel points in five of his last seven games, but his ownership has not caught up with his recent production. Per our DFS Ownership Dashboard, Reyes has had remarkably low ownership across all stakes:
Reyes’ slow start may explain his low ownership, but he has some factors in his favor today. The Mets have an implied total of 4.2 runs and a Team Value Rating of 73 on FanDuel, and Reyes has a recent fly ball rate of 46 percent. Historically, players with comparable Bargain Ratings, team implied totals, and fly ball rates have scored 10.00 FanDuel points per game with a +0.78 Plus/Minus. Of course, keep an eye out for the rain. If this game plays, Reyes could have even lower ownership than he usually does.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
