This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Jacob deGrom: Pitcher, Mets
One of the highest-rated pitchers in the Bales Model, deGrom is second and third in the slate with a K/9 of 10.578 and a K prediction of 8.1. Per our Trends tool, deGrom has been a stud at Citi Field with a +6.00 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a Consistency Rating of 78.0 percent. A slate-best -210 moneyline favorite (per our Vegas Dashboard), deGrom is facing the Padres, who have a slate-low implied run total of 3.1. Pitchers with similar moneylines and opponent implied run totals have done well:
One issue with deGrom is his recent form. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 202 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and hard hit of 38 percent. Despite his high rating, in deGrom’s starts with a comparable DraftKings salary he’s had a horrid -6.66 Plus/Minus. In the small main slate, he’s likely to have outrageous ownership.
Note: The Mets game currently has a 76 percent chance of precipitation at game time. Monitor weather throughout the day on our MLB Lineups page.
Jason Kipnis: Second Base, Indians
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Per our Lineups page, Cleveland has the day’s highest Team Value Rating at 78 and several top stacks in the Bales Model. Currently implied for a slate-high 5.7 runs, the Indians face Tim Adleman, whose Statcast data is problematic with a recent batted ball distance of 233 feet. He’s third in the slate with a 1.88 HR/9:
Leading off for the Indians, Kipnis is one of the top hitters in our Player Models, with a fly ball rate of 46 percent and a hard hit of 33 percent over the last 15 days.
Mike Trout: Outfielder, Angels
One of the hottest hitters in baseball, Trout is set to face Rays righty Matt Andriese, who has terrible recent form with a batted ball distance of 208 feet, a hard hit of 48 percent, and an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour in his last two games. With a .284 ISO versus right-handers, Trout has crushed the ball recently with a batted ball distance of 259 feet, fly ball rate of 57 percent, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard hit rate of 53 percent.
Despite his excellent production, Trout’s recent ownership (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard) has been manageable:
Batters with similar Statcast data historically have a +1.31 Plus/Minus with a Consistency Rating of 43.4 percent. Over the last 10 days Trout has averaged a +6.14 Plus/Minus.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
