This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Jeremy Hellickson: Pitcher, Phillies
With the expensive and chalky Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, and Corey Kluber on the slate, Hellickson deserves a look. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in his four starts this season, averaging a +2.93 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. On 4/21, when Hellickson produced 40 FanDuel and 23 DraftKings points, he was largely unowned (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
The opposing Marlins are implied to score just 3.7 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard), and pitchers with similar Vegas data have historically returned value at Citizen’s Bank Park with a + 1.42 Plus/Minus and a 53.8 percent Consistency Rating. In eight meetings against the Marlins, Hellickson has a +5.09 Plus/Minus and 62.5 percent Consistency Rating.
Hellickson’s other data (available in our Player Models) doesn’t look good. He currently has a K Prediction of 5.0, a K/9 of 3.75 and a BABIP of .164, and he has some of today’s worst batted ball data, including an average batted ball distance of 236 feet and a fly ball rate of 58 percent. He’s risky, but his likely low ownership could differentiate lineups in guaranteed prize pools.
Nick Castellanos: Third Base, Tigers
Castellanos enters the slate in excellent batted ball form, with an explosive 15-day exit velocity of 95 mph and a hard hit rate of 48 percent. Players with similar stats have averaged 9.17 DraftKings points per game for a +1.62 Plus/Minus with a Consistency Rating of 46 percent.
Detroit, with a Team Value Rating of 91 on DraftKings, is currently implied for 4.7 runs. Based on our Trends tool, players with Castellanos’ data on teams with totals of at least 4.7 runs have averaged a massive +2.13 Plus/Minus with a 47.7 percent Consistency Rating.
In our Lineup Builder, Castellanos (only $3600) is at the heart of one of the Bales Model’s highest-rated DraftKings stacks:
With his low salary, Castellanos could be a core member of several Detroit stacks cheap enough to accommodate the slate’s expensive pitchers.
Austin Hedges: Catcher, Padres
Hedges is off to a flying start with six home runs and is one of the Bales Model’s highest-rated catchers today. With a massive reverse split, Hedges has an ISO of .304 vs. righties, which makes him an intriguing option against Diamondbacks starter Taijuan Walker, who has an HR/9 of 1.976 over the last 12 months. Hedges has solid Statcast data, including a recent hard hit rate of 41 percent, an exit velocity of 91 mph, and a fly ball rate of 51 percent.
Currently projected to bat sixth for a Padres team implied for 4.7 runs at hitter-friendly Chase Field, Hedges is similar on the basis of batted ball and Vegas data to some players who have been valuable on FanDuel:
Hedges has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
