This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Wilmer Flores: First/Third Baseman, Mets
At Coors Field the Mets will likely be a popular pivot off of the Rockies on the small three-game early slate. They’re taking right-hander Kyle Freeland, who has a pathetic WHIP of 1.439 over the past 12 months. The Mets’ implied team total of 5.0 runs is the second-highest mark on the slate (per our Vegas Dashboard):
Flores recently returned from a back injury, but in his five games over the past month he has incredible Statcast data, including an average batted-ball distance of 268 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph and hard-hit rate of 57%. Projected to hit cleanup, he has 15-day/12-month Statcast differentials of +45 feet, +3 mph, and +22 percentage points. His +41 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that he is hitting the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates, and he’s also doing getting the ball in the air with an above-average 42% fly-ball rate. Hitters with comparable Vegas data, lineup spots and hard-contact numbers have historically averaged a +2.52 DraftKings Plus/Minus at Coors Field.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
Rostering Scherzer at his high salary isn’t easy, but the high-stakes players are likely to do it. He was priced similarly for his last start on the main slate (6/5), and the sharps rostered him at a significantly higher rate than the low-stakes players:
Scherzer leads all pitchers today with an 11.0 K Prediction in a nut matchup against a projected Orioles lineup implied for a slate-low 2.6 runs and possessing a putrid 32.1% strikeout rate and .282 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Only 62 pitchers in our database have had a K Prediction higher than 10.0, and they averaged a +3.53 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Fewer than 10 of them had Vegas data comparable to Scherzer’s. Even though it’s extreme, his high K Prediction is warranted: His 12.84 SO/9 is rare, and he has 10, 9, 13 and 12 strikeouts over his past four starts. The Nationals are slate-best -280 favorites against the Orioles.
Kyle Schwarber: Outfielder, Cubs
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Cubs, who are implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs:
The Cubs may be chalky at home against Reds righty Matt Harvey, who owns a slate-worst a 1.92 HR/9 and 1.68 WHIP over the past 12 months. Harvey also has recently allowed a slate-high 240-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate.
Batting sixth, Kyle Schwarber might have lower ownership than some of his top-of-the-order teammates, and he owns a .385 wOBA and .308 isolated power over the past year against righties. Further, Schwarber has unreal recent batted-ball data with a 262-foot average distance and 96-mph exit velocity. Historically, hitters with comparable lineup spots, implied totals and recent batted-ball data have averaged a +1.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Wilmer Flores
