This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Clayton Kershaw: Pitcher, Dodgers
The main slate is headlined by Kershaw’s return to the rotation after he was sidelined in early May with biceps tendinitis. His 12-month 1.01 WHIP and 10.88 SO/9 lead the slate, but he’s been far less dominant in 2018 (per our Trends tool):
However, there’s a lot to like about Kershaw at his discounted price, which is $700 lower than his season average on DraftKings. The Phillies are implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs, and their projected lineup has a slate-high splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 27.9% over the past 12 months. Kershaw has failed to reach his salary-based expectations in five of seven starts this year, so he might have reduced ownership today. His 7.5 K Prediction is the nine-game main slate’s third-highest mark.
Aaron Nola: Pitcher, Phillies
If Nola weren’t pitching so well recently, the Phillies might have worse odds (+153 moneyline) with Kershaw back on the hill. With a slate-leading 8.2 K Prediction, Nola is a reasonable pivot in guaranteed prize pools, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating and is $1,500 cheaper than Kershaw. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically provided a nice Consistency Rating at low ownership on FanDuel:
Nola is a solid pitcher with a 1.12 WHIP, 0.82 HR/9 and 9.75 SO/9 over the past 12 months. He has a neutral matchup against a projected Dodgers lineup with a 24.9% strikeout rate and comparably average .328 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past year. He’s allowed some hard contact lately — his 40% hard-hit rate over the past two starts is the second-worst mark on the slate — but overall he’s recently managed hitters well: He trails only Wade LeBlanc with a low 195-foot batted-ball distance.
Alex Bregman: Third Baseman, Astros
With weather concerns in the Yankees-Orioles game, the Astros are especially intriguing. They trail only the Yanks with their 5.4-run implied total and they own a slate-best 80 Team Value Rating on DraftKings:
Sporting a splits-adjusted .379 wOBA, Bregman — projected to hit second — is in a favorable spot against Red Sox pitcher Drew Pomeranz, whose 1.49 WHIP over the past 12 months is bottom-two on the slate. Houston has annihilated lefties with a top-two .350 wOBA over that same time, and Bregman leads all Astros batters with his 70% DraftKings Bargain Rating. His Statcast data is also solid with a recent batted-ball distance of 227 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph and hard-hit rate of 41%. Batters with comparable implied totals, lineup spots and advanced stats have historically been valuable with a +1.12 Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Clayton Kershaw
Photo Credit: Joe Camporaele-USA Today Sports
