This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Mookie Betts: Outfielder, Red Sox
Team Value Rating (TVR) is a FantasyLabs metric that measures the value a team offers based on its implied total and player salaries. With a chance of rain in Chicago, the Rangers-Red Sox tilt stands out in this short four-game main slate, with two of the four highest TVRs on FanDuel:
Per our Vegas Dashboard, Boston currently has the highest implied team total of the day at 5.2, and Betts (projected to lead off) will likely be popular after he exploded for home runs in three consecutive at-bats yesterday in his first start since injuring his hamstring. Mookie has crushed the ball recently with a batted-ball distance of 238 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and fly-ball rate of 50%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him a distance differential of +23 feet, velocity differential of +4 mph, and fly-ball differential of +7 percentage points. Batters with comparable salaries, lineup spots, and Statcast data have a strong historical Plus/Minus of +2.51 on FanDuel.
Mike Minor: Pitcher, Rangers
On the other side of the same game, Minor could be one of the most intriguing leverage plays on the slate, given how chalky the opposing Red Sox batters could be. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.60 through his first four starts this season, and his K/9 of 11.169 is the top mark among all of today’s pitchers. He leads the slate with a K Prediction of 7.8, yet he’s priced down at just $5,300 on DraftKings. The sample is small — it’s rare for a pitcher this cheap to have such a high strikeout upside — but historically pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have smashed value with minuscule ownership.
There are, though, a few negatives with Minor. He’s the slate’s largest underdog (+138), and has allowed a ton of hard contact lately (50% hard-hit rate). The good news is that even with the hard contact Minor has an impressive 52% ground-ball rate and a slate-low 0.59 HR/9. He has upside at his current price tag, but he’s certainly best suited for guaranteed prize pools only.
Chad Pinder: Outfielder, Athletics
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to Oakland, which is implied for only 4.2 runs:
The Athletics take on Mariners lefty Wade LeBlanc, who has been abused recently with a batted-ball distance of 250 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and fly ball rate of 50%. Pinder is in particularly good form at the moment and is likely a core reason the Oakland stack rates highly even with a middling implied total. His recent Statcast data is NSFW with a batted-ball distance of 235 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and fly ball rate of 72%. Hitters with comparable data have historically averaged a +3.38 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Mookie Betts
Photo credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
