This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Caleb Smith: Pitcher, Marlins
There are a few intriguing pitching options, but none intrigues me more than Smith. At home against the Braves, who are implied for only 3.8 runs, Smith boasts a stellar 8.6 K Prediction despite Atlanta’s middling 24.4% strikeout rate. He also has solid Statcast data with a recent batted-ball distance of 190 feet, exit velocity of 89 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 38%. Historically, DraftKings pitchers with comparable Vegas implications, K Predictions and recent Statcast data have exceeded salary-based expectations at a highly consistent rate (per our Trends tool):
Further, the Statcast data from his two most recent starts is especially impressive, given his 15-day/12-month distance differential of -23 feet. With multiple high-priced options in the slate, Smith is unlikely to have exorbitant ownership, but he carries immense upside in guaranteed prize pools given his strikeout projection and peripheral stats.
Charlie Blackmon: Outfielder, Rockies
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Rockies are implied for a slate-high 6.4 runs. Even though their prices are inflated because of Coors Field, they still sport a slate-leading Team Value Rating of 84 on DraftKings:
Blackmon has hit righties well over the past 12 months with an impressive .416 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .278 isolated power (ISO). He’s played well over the past month, averaging 10.7 DraftKings points per game despite having a distance differential of -8 feet and hard-hit rate of -4 percentage points. Coors batters with similar lineup spots, splits and Statcast data have historically averaged 11.36 DraftKings points per game with a +2.02 Plus/Minus and an exceptionally high 59.1% Consistency Rating. Per usual, Blackmon and the other Coors batters will likely be popular.
Lucas Duda: First Baseman, Royals
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top (non-Coors) four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Royals:
The Royals are implied for 5.1 runs — trailing only the Rockies — and have a prime matchup against Orioles pitcher Chris Tillman, whose 2.013 WHIP and 2.366 HR/9 over the past 12 months are the worst marks on the slate. His 87.9-mph recent pitch velocity is also the slate’s worst mark.
One Royals batter who particularly stands out is Lucas Duda, priced at only $2,500 on FanDuel with an 82% Bargain Rating. He’s projected to hit fifth (per our Lineups page) and is on the positive side of his batting splits, highlighted by a massive 0.132 wOBA differential. He also has strong Statcast data and a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +44. Historically, similarly unlucky FanDuel batters with comparable implied totals, lineup spots, salaries and Statcast data have produced a Plus/Minus of +4.04 and 54.3% Consistency Rating.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Lucas Duda
Photo credit: Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports
