This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Yoan Moncada: Second Baseman, White Sox
Per our Vegas Dashboard, at the time of writing the White Sox are tied for a slate-high 5.1 implied run total on the DraftKings early slate. The White Sox are also one of the more affordable teams with a Team Value Rating of 78 — the third-highest mark on the slate:
The White Sox take on Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmerman, who, despite striking out eight batters in his first start, still allowed four earned runs through six innings and had an absurd 60% fly-ball rate. The switch-hitting Moncada has hit righties well over the past 12 months with a .352 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a .219 isolated power (ISO): His wOBA Differential (0.076) and ISO Differential (.103) indicate that he’s better vs. righties than lefties. Moncada is also smashing the ball with a recent average distance of 264 feet and exit velocity of 97 miles per hour. His Recent Batted Ball Luck Score (RBBL) of 32 also indicates that he’s been a little unlucky thus far with his fantasy output. If you’re unfamiliar with our RBBL metric, here’s the definition:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days.
Josh Harrison: Second Baseman, Pirates
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. As of writing, the Pirates rank as the top stack in the Bales Player Model on the FanDuel main slate.
Harrison has been crushing the ball with a recent average distance of 250 feet and hard-hit rate of 50%, but he doesn’t have many fantasy points to show for it as he’s been incredibly unlucky with his RBBL Score of 71. That could change Thursday night against Homer Bailey, who in his first start allowed an average distance of 226 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and fly-ball rate of 52%. While Bailey allowed only one run, his RBBL Score of -44 suggests that he was a bit lucky. Historically, batters with metrics comparable to Harrison’s have exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel by 2.41 points (per our Trends tool).
Masahiro Tanaka: Pitcher, Yankees
There are just four games on FanDuel’s main slate Thursday night, so pitching options are limited. Tanaka is currently the only favorite on the slate with a moneyline better than -130. He’s historically performed well as a heavy favorite, averaging 43.83 FanDuel points with a +9.51 Plus/Minus and a 72.2% Consistency Rating:
Tanaka is sporting a slate-best WHIP of 1.2, and he trails only Robbie Ray on the slate with his 10.03 SO/9. One drawback is that the Orioles have a wOBA of .336 against right-handed pitching (the second-best mark on the slate), and the wind is projected to be blowing out at 11 miles per hour, but their projected lineup also has a slate-high strikeout rate of 28.3% against righties. Given the limited pitching options, Tanaka is sure to be heavily owned; Pro subscribers can review ownership rates in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Masahiro Tanaka
Photo credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
