This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Jameson Taillon: Pitcher, Pirates
Taillon presents a dilemma for today’s slate. He’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings at $11,100, yet his Vegas data are pedestrian. His opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs ranks just fourth, and his moneyline odds of +103 make him a slight underdog. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, moneyline odds, and opponent implied team totals have been poor values (per the Trends tool):
However, there’s also a lot to like about Taillon. He has a nice matchup vs. the Phillies, whose projected lineup has struck out in 29.0% of at-bats against right-handers over the past month, and Taillon’s K Prediction of 7.8 is the top mark on the slate. His Statcast data from his two most recent starts are also excellent, resulting in a distance differential of -23 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +3.29, so it will be interesting to see if DFS players gravitate toward his Vegas data or peripheral statistics on today’s slate.
Jesus Aguilar: First Base, Brewers
The Brewers will likely be a popular team today. They’re taking on Marlins left-hander Dillon Peters, who has posted a WHIP of 1.704 over the past 12 months. The Brewers’ implied team total of 5.0 runs is the top mark on the slate:
Aguilar has crushed left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a wOBA of .390 and an ISO of .257. He’s also in decent recent form with a positive distance differential over the past 15 days. He’s a better value on FanDuel, where his $2,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%.
Preston Tucker: Outfielder, Braves
The weather could be a big factor for the Mets-Braves game, as there’s currently projected to be a 12-mph wind blowing directly out to centerfield:
The Braves are squaring off with Mets right-hander Matt Harvey, who has had his struggles with the long ball over the past 12 months. He’s posted a HR/9 of 2.14 over that time frame and allowed three home runs over his past two starts. Tucker is on the positive side of his batting splits against Harvey, as he’s crushed righties to the tune of a .396 wOBA and .258 ISO over the past year. He’s in solid recent form with positive distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials over his past nine games, and his $2,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s projected for just 5-8% ownership, so he could be an important differentiator in Braves stacks.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Preston Tucker
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing- USA Today Sports
