The Three Key MLB Players series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze . . . three key MLB players in the day’s slate. This series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Gary Sanchez: Catcher, Yankees
With a slate-high 0.1 home runs per at bat and 0.351 isolated power over the last 12 months, Sanchez is the slate’s most prolific power hitter (per our Player Models). He also has the most Pro Trends of any position player on DraftKings and FanDuel, so he’s enticing (as Bryan Mears notes in his MLB Breakdown).
At the same time, he’s expensive for a catcher at $4,500 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel. Per our Trends tool, comparably priced batters in the top third of the order tend to do well on DraftKings . . .
. . . but the Yankees have a slate-low implied Vegas total of 3.25 runs, and Sanchez has a Park Factor of (literally) four and a DraftKings Bargain Rating of 13 percent. Exposure to Sanchez might be best limited to FanDuel — and fade consideration might also be warranted. It’s not a good look when a power hitter has a batted ball distance of only 214 feet and a fly ball rate of only 33 percent over the last year.
Denard Span: Outfielder, Giants
Our Lineup Builder allows stacks to be easily made and incorporated into DFS rosters. Notably, the four highest-rated four-player FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model all belong to the Giants . . .
. . . but only one player appears in all four of them: Span. On DraftKings, Span isn’t particularly cheap for a leadoff hitter at $4,000, but no No. 1 batter is cheaper than him at $2,800 on FanDuel, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Over the last year Span has offered little power (0.019 HR/AB) and relatively little speed (0.084 stolen bases per game) — but he’s on the beneficial side of his hitting splits versus Zach Greinke, as a left-handed batter at Chase Field he has a slate-high Park Factor of 53, and the Giants-Diamondbacks game has slate-high marks with an 8.0-run over/under and 61 Weather Rating. The Giants lead the slate with an implied total of 4.25 runs.
Given the slate, there are legitimate reasons not to stack the Giants in guaranteed prize pools, but Span is in consideration regardless of whether a lineup houses any other Giants. He’s one of the top FanDuel hitters in both the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Carlos Martinez: Pitcher, Cardinals
Martinez has uninspiring ratings in our Models, and his 12-month rolling average of 1.229 WHIP and 8.056 strikeouts per nine innings don’t distinguish him among the Opening Day starting pitchers. It doesn’t help that (per our Vegas Dashboard) he’s pitching against the team with the second-highest implied run total:
But Martinez could have some unexpected benefit in GPPs. He has the second-lowest pitching salaries in the slate ($8,300 on DraftKings and $9,000 on FanDuel) and a slate-low mark of 0.694 HR/9 allowed over the last year. His 80 Park Factor isn’t notable in this slate — several pitchers are playing in friendly parks — but it’s still good, especially when considered next to his 69 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating. Historically, pitchers with similar salaries, Park Factors, and Bargain Ratings have rocked out with a +2.88 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 65.1 percent Consistency Rating.
It’s possible the Cubs could have inflated ownership, since they have a good lineup, are the reigning World Series champions, and play in the prime time slot on Opening Day: Some DFS players might stack the Cubs in GPPs just to have a sweat while watching the night game. If that happens, then as a result Martinez is likely to have deflated ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Martinez carries risk, but his low salary and potential ownership discount make him an intriguing and cheap contrarian option.
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