This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Aaron Nola: Pitcher, Phillies
With limited elite options on the main slate, Nola will probably be popular, especially on FanDuel with his 99% Bargain Rating. The opposing Brewers are implied for a middling 4.0 runs, and Nola sports a slate-leading 8.7 K Prediction. Historically, similarly priced pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have been consistent options on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Nola owns a respectable 1.06 WHIP and 9.92 K/9, and he doesn’t give up a lot of home runs as evidenced by his 0.74 HR/9. The projected Brewers lineup has a putrid 28.4% strikeout rate and below-average .305 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Nola also boasts an impressive recent batted-ball distance of 172 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 33%. Regardless of his average Vegas data, he carries immense upside in guaranteed prize pools with his strikeout projection and Statcast data.
Trevor Story: Shortstop, Rockies
The Rockies will likely be popular. They’re taking on Rangers right-hander Yovani Gallardo, who has posted a pathetic WHIP of 1.63 and 2.25 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Their implied total of 5.7 runs is the highest mark on the slate, and they own the second-highest Team Value Rating on DraftKings (80):
Projected to hit sixth, Story has strong recent Statcast data, including an average batted-ball distance of 255 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph and hard-hit rate of 58%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of +24 feet, +3 mph and +14 percentage points. He’s also getting the ball in the air with a team-leading 46% fly-ball rate. Hitters with comparable Vegas data, lineup spots and Statcast data have historically averaged a +1.16 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Shin-Soo Choo: Outfielder, Rangers
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. In the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rangers, who are just outside the top tier with an implied total of 4.9 runs:
Jon Gray is a solid pitcher with a 1.35 WHIP and low .89 HR/9, but the 86 Weather Rating should be friendly to hitters, and the projected Rangers lineup notably owns a high .328 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months.
Projected to lead off, Shin-Soo Choo stands out as one of the highest-rated batters in the main slate with solid Statcast data, including a recent batted-ball distance of 248 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 48% each. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied team totals and Statcast data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.57 with an impressive 21 Upside Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Aaron Nola
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
