This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Stephen Strasburg: Pitcher, Nationals
Strasburg has a supreme matchup against the Marlins. Strasburg boasts a slate-best 8.8 K Prediction, and the Nationals are sizeable -190 moneyline favorites against a Marlins team with an implied total of 3.2 runs. Historically, Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas have been highly owned but very consistent (per our Trends tool):
The projected Marlins lineup has struggled against righties over the past 12 months with a 28.6% strikeout rate and .287 weighted on-base average (wOBA). If there is a cause for concern with Strasburg, it’s that he has inflated batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate differentials (+10 feet, +8 mph, +20 percentage points) over his past two games when compared to his 12-month averages.
Jose Abreu: First Baseman, White Sox
With our Models and proprietary Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) metric, you can spot batters who are hitting well but failing to make a fantasy impact. Abreu is one of those hitters, sporting a +14 RBBL. He owns batted-ball differentials of +2- feet, +4 mph, and +10 percentage points. Hitters with comparable differentials and RBBLs have historically been excellent progression candidates:
Abreu is on the positive side of his splits against Tigers lefty Blaine Hardy and has crushed righties over the past 12 months with a .396 wOBA and .273 ISO. Overall, it’s a solid spot for the White Sox, who are implied for 4.5 runs and have a Weather Rating of 68.
David Dahl: Outfielder, Rockies
The Rockies possess a slate-best Team Value Rating of 91 on DraftKings and are implied for a slate-high 6.4 runs:
If you want exposure to Coors Field, Dahl is relatively cheap and has a good matchup against Reds pitcher Matt Harvey, who has allowed a 239-foot average distance, 46% hard-hit rate, and 46% fly-ball rate over his past two games. Meanwhile, Dahl is sporting a +47 RBBL, 230-foot average distance, and 95-mph exit velocity over the past 15 days. Hitters in Coors Field with comparable batted-ball metrics have historically averaged an absurd +4.11 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: David Dahl
Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
