This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Noah Syndergaard: Pitcher, Mets
There are a few aces on the mound today, but Syndergaard by far has the best outlook among them. He checks in as the largest favorite on the main slate (-180 moneyline odds) while the opposing Diamondbacks are implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs. Further, Syndergaard has a respectable 7.3 K Prediction. Historically, home pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been solid investments on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
Additionally, the projected Diamondbacks lineup has an atrocious .284 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Overall, Syndergaard owns some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 199-foot average distance, 89-mph exit velocity, and minuscule 24% hard-hit rate.
Ronald Acuna: Outfielder, Braves
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the Recent Batted Ball Model belongs to the Braves, who are implied for 5.3 runs:
The Braves have an excellent matchup against Marlins pitcher Wie-Yin Chen, who over his past two starts has allowed an absurd 242-foot recent average distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and 42% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Acuna is sporting a robust 99-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate. He also has hit lefties well over the past 12 months with a .338 wOBA and .241 isolated power (ISO). Hitters with comparable metrics and implied run totals have historically averaged a stellar +1.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Max Kepler: Outfielder, Twins
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Twins are implied for 4.6 runs and own a slate-best Team Value Rating of 84 on FanDuel:
Kepler is an excellent value on FanDuel with an 82% Bargain Rating. He’s also on the positive side of his splits against Brewers righty Junior Guerra, as Kepler boasts a .344 wOBA and .219 ISO over the past 12 months against right-handed pitchers. Further, he owns positive differentials in recent batted-ball distance (+36 feet), exit velocity (+4 mph), and hard-hit rate (+13 percentage points). Ultimately, the stars are aligning for Kepler, as Guerra has some of the worst recent batted-ball data on the slate with his 256-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 44% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable salaries and batted-ball differentials have historically averaged an excellent +2.21 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Ronald Acuna
Photo credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
