This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Dallas Keuchel: Pitcher, Astros
There are a lot of strong pitching options on today’s slate, but Keuchel might be the best pure value at the position on DraftKings. His salary has decreased by $3,800 since the start of the season, and his current $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 74%. He’s taking on the Texas Rangers, whose projected lineup has posted a .309 wOBA and 26.8% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 3.3 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate, while Keuchel’s moneyline odds of -280 are tied for first. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have been reliable options:
Keuchel also has impressive Statcast data over his past two starts, posting an average distance of 176 feet. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those two starts, but his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +24 suggests that he still has room for fantasy improvement.
Trevor Story: Shortstop, Rockies
The high-stakes players loaded up on the Rockies on Saturday, with the majority of their big bats owning strong Volatility Ratings in our DFS Ownership Dashboard:
Story was the highest-owned member of the team at the $1,500 buy-in level, thanks in no small part to his elite batted-ball profile over the past 15 days. He’s absolutely smoked the baseball, recording an average distance of 259 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 53%. All three of those numbers represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages, and batters at Coors with comparable numbers have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.33 and an Upside Rating of 38%. He’s slightly cheaper than some of his higher-profile teammates but still projected to occupy a spot in the top five of the Rockies lineup. Their implied team total of 6.3 runs is the top mark on the slate by a margin of 0.5 runs, so the Rockies could be a high-stakes team to stack yet again on Sunday. Unfortunately, Story won’t fly under the radar at the lower-stakes levels after clubbing two home runs and a double on Saturday.
Joe Wendle: Second Base, Rays
The Rays’ implied team total of 4.6 runs is somewhat modest, but their batters still present value at their current salaries. They trail only the Astros with their Team Value Rating of 84 on FanDuel:
One batter who stands out as a particularly nice value is Wendle. He’s priced at just $2,400, which gives him a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits against Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a ridiculous batted-ball distance of 290 feet over his past two starts. Conversely, Wendle has posted an average distance of 225 feet over the past 15 days, which represents an increase of +25 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with ourindustry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Joe Wendle
Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
