This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Aaron Nola: Pitcher, Phillies
There are a lot of intriguing mid-ranged pitchers on the 10-game early slate, but paying up for Nola could still be sharp with his 7.4 K Prediction, as he possesses arguably more strikeout potential than anyone. He also has fantastic recent Statcast data over the past two starts, including a batted-ball distance of 192 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 20% and 24%. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Statcast data have historically been strong options on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Nola’s a better value on FanDuel, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, but he is squarely in play on both sites. His matchup isn’t great against a projected Nationals lineup with a .333 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and the Nationals are implied for an almost-solid 3.9 runs, but Nola’s year-long 1.10 WHIP, 0.75 HR/9 and 9.89 SO/9 mitigate concerns about his matchup.
Logan Morrison: First Baseman, Twins
If you decide to pay up for pitching or Coors Field batters, you might want to consider the Twins as cheaper options to round out your lineup. They trail only the Rockies with their 5.1-run implied total, and they own an early slate-best 82 Team Value Rating on DraftKings (per our Vegas Dashboard):
At just $3,300 and sporting a splits-adjusted .322 wOBA, Morrison is projected to hit cleanup and in a favorable spot against Rangers righty Yovani Gallardo, whose 1.67 WHIP over the past 12 months is #bad and whose 2.25 HR/9 is bottom-three on the slate.
Morrison’s Statcast data is good over the past 15 days, but it hasn’t translated to fantasy points, as Morrison has just a 33% Consistency Rating and 5.90 DraftKings points per game. In all probability he’s been unfortunate with his production, as evidenced by his +54 Recent Batted Ball Luck. Similarly unlucky batters with comparable implied totals, lineup spots and advanced stats have historically been valuable with a +1.13 Plus/Minus.
Alex Bregman: Third Baseman, Astros
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man main-slate DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Astros, who are implied for a slate-high 5.6 runs:
The Astros could be chalky against Royals pitcher Ian Kennedy, who owns slate-worst marks with a 1.49 WHIP and 1.88 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Kennedy also has recently allowed a high 241-foot average distance and 94-mph exit velocity.
Overall, it’s an excellent matchup for Alex Bregman, who owns a slate-high 12 DraftKings Pro Trends. Further, Bregman boasts unreal recent batted-ball data with a 259-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 58% fly-ball and hard-hit rates. Historically, hitters with similar lineup spots, implied totals and recent batted-ball data have averaged a +1.81 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 56.3% Consistency Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Logan Morrison
Photo credit: Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
