This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Justin Verlander: Pitcher, Astros
Paying all the way up for Verlander could be the path of least resistance, as the opposing Red Sox are implied for a slate-low 3.3 runs, and the Astros have slate-high moneyline odds of -170. The projected Red Sox lineup boasts a bottom-two 21.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months, but Verlander still has a solid K Prediction of 7.0, and pitchers with comparable strikeout and Vegas marks have historically provided tremendous value on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Verlander has allowed a middling recent batted-ball distance of 207 feet, but he’s in fine form with an absurd exit velocity of 86 miles per hour and low hard-hit rate of 19%. He’s absolutely dealing, and his long-term .954 WHIP also inspires a ton of confidence.
Joc Pederson: Outfielder, Dodgers
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Dodgers are implied for a slate-high 5.7 runs and 76 Team Value Rating on DraftKings:
Pederson, who will lead off, has dazzling recent Statcast data with an average batted-ball distance of 231 feet and fly-ball rate of 51%. His 22-foot distance differential trounces his 12-month average, and his +74 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he is hitting the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates. He’s also on the positive side of his splits with a solid .344 wOBA and .203 ISO against righties over the past year. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots and Statcast data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.44 at Coors Field.
Christian Villanueva: Third Baseman, Padres
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top (non-Coors) five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Padres, who take on Reds righty Matt Harvey and his slate-leading 2.08 HR/9:
The Padres are implied for a healthy 4.4 runs, and they have the upside for more against Harvey, who has the slate’s second-highest 12-month WHIP at 1.72.
Christian Villanueva is one of the top players in the Model, carrying an impressive recent batted-ball distance of 238 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 62% and 42%. Like Pederson, Villanueva could also be due for progression, as his +51 RBBL suggests that his 6.7 DraftKings points per game over the past month could be on the low end of his range of outcomes.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
