This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players on the day’s slate.
Nick Castellanos: Outfielder, Tigers
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. In the eight-game early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the Batted Ball Player Model belongs to the Tigers, who are implied for 5.0 runs:
The Tigers face struggling White Sox lefty Hector Santiago, who owns a bottom-two 1.66 WHIP and 2.60 HR/9 over the past 12 months.
Projected to bat second, Castellanos stands out as one of the highest-rated batters in the early slate with solid Statcast data, but he’s also on the positive side of his splits with an elite .444 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .297 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. Historically, hitters with similar Vegas data, comparable spots in the order and peripheral stats have averaged a +1.05 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an impressive 24% Upside Rating, per our MLB Trends tool.
Alex Wood: Pitcher, Dodgers
There are a few intriguing pitching options on Saturday’s main slate, but Wood is the largest favorite (-185 moneyline odds). The opposing Padres are implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs, and Wood’s 6.2 K Prediction is tied for the second-best mark on the slate. Per the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions historically been safe investments on DraftKings, averaging a +6.83 Plus/Minus and 69% Consistency.
Wood is a solid pitcher with a 1.06 WHIP and 0.96 HR/9 over the past 12 months, and he’s in an excellent matchup against a Padres projected lineup that has an above-average 26.8% strikeout rate and a slate-low .273 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
David Dahl: Outfielder, Rockies
The Rockies will likely be popular today as they take on Reds righty Tyler Mahle, who owns a bottom-three 1.42 WHIP and top-three 1.61 HR/9, at Coors field. Colorado’s implied team total of 6.4 runs is the highest mark on the slate, and they own by far the highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings (86) and FanDuel (83):
(via FantasyLabs MLB Player Models)
Dahl, who will bat No. 2, has strong recent Statcast data with an average batted-ball distance of 230 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph and hard-hit rate of 39%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of +23 feet, +4 mph and +6 percentage points. His +49 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that Dahl is hitting the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates, and he’s also on the right side of his splits today, with wOBA and ISO differentials of +.199 and +.04 against righties over the past year. Per the Trends tool, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied team totals, and Statcast data have historically produced a Plus/Minus of +3.03 at Coors Field.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: David Dahl
Photo credit: Richard Mackson – USA TODAY Sports
