This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
James Paxton: Pitcher, Mariners
There are three main-slate pitchers with at least -185 moneyline odds, and of the group Paxton is the most intriguing. The opposing Tigers have a slate-low implied total of 2.9 runs, and the Mariners are the slate’s biggest favorites (-240 moneyline odds). Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas odds and opponent implied totals have yielded remarkably consistent results (per our Trends tool):
Paxton’s 1.16 WHIP is the slate’s fourth-highest mark, and although he’s a much better value on FanDuel with a 99% Bargain Rating he’s in play on both sites with the added bonus of an appealing 74 Park Factor at home. Paxton also has solid recent Statcast data with a batted-ball distance of 201 feet, exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 43% and 35%. With Max Scherzer, Sean Newcomb, and Luis Severino also pitching today, Paxton could have a lower ownership rate than he otherwise might with this type of Vegas data.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
With yesterday’s Nationals game postponed, Scherzer is now in play for today’s slate, and his matchup against the Dodgers isn’t any less juicy than it was before the rainout. Without a standout option on the slate, ownership could be relatively flat among the high-priced pitchers, just as it was for Scherzer’s most recent start (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Scherzer’s high price is somewhat restrictive in terms of lineup construction, but his slate-leading 10.5 K Prediction in our Models is impossible to ignore. Further, outside of a small sample from Freddy Peralta, no one touches Scherzer’s 0.873 WHIP and 12.825 HR/9 over the past 12 months. His -90 Recent Batted Ball Luck is concerning, but he carries immense upside in guaranteed prize pools with his rare strikeout projection, and he doesn’t give up a lot of home runs as evidenced by his 0.843 HR/9.
Zack Cozart: Third Baseman, Angels
The Angels will likely be a popular team today. They’re taking on Rays right-hander Sergio Romo, who has posted a WHIP of 1.324 and 1.833 HR/9 over the past 12 months. The Angels’ implied team total of 5.0 runs is the third-highest mark on the slate, and they own by far the highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings (86) and FanDuel (90):
Projected to lead off, Cozart has strong recent Statcast data with an average batted-ball distance of 239 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph, and hard-hit rate of 41%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of +22 feet, +2 mph, and +9 percentage points. His +44 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that Cozart is hitting the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates, and he’s also doing his part to get the ball in the air with a 51% fly-ball rate. Hitters with comparable Vegas data, lineup spots, and Statcast data have historically averaged a +2.49 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Zack Cozart
Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
