This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Charlie Morton: Pitcher, Astros
Morton is the most expensive pitcher in the slate, and paying all the way up for a pitcher isn’t always easy to do with Coors Field in play. That said, the opposing Rangers are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard), and Morton has posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.9 through his first seven starts. His K/9 of 10.29 is the top mark among all of today’s pitchers, and he sports a slate-leading 8.4 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparably favorable Vegas data and K Predictions have smashed on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
The projected Rangers lineup owns a middling 27.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but Morton has Statcast data that’s NSFW with a recent batted-ball distance of 175 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 25% and 28%. The Astros will likely end up as the largest favorite on the slate, currently sitting at -248, and Morton has provided an 84.2% Consistency Rating over the past two seasons as a home favorite.
Charlie Blackmon: Outfielder, Rockies
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Rockies, who are implied for a slate-high 5.9 runs and 79 Team Value Rating (TVR) on DraftKings:
The Rockies will be chalky at home against Brewers pitcher Chase Anderson, who owns a below-average a 1.37 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Anderson also has recently allowed a high 226-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and 45% fly-ball rate.
Overall, it’s a great spot for Charlie Blackmon, as he owns a .420 wOBA and .282 isolated power (ISO) over the past year against righties. Further, Blackmon has respectable recent batted-ball data with a 223-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity. Historically, hitters with comparable lineup spots, implied run totals, and recent batted-ball data have averaged a +1.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus at Coors Field.
Matt Kemp: Outfielder, Dodgers
The Dodgers will likely be a popular team today. They’re taking on Reds right-hander Homer Bailey, who has posted a WHIP of 1.615 over the past 12 months. The Dodgers trail only the Coors teams and the Astros with their implied team total of 4.7 runs, and their 80 TVR leads both the early and main slates on FanDuel:
One player who could help to differentiate Los Angeles stacks is Kemp, who rates well in our Models and leads the team in Pro Trends. Projected to hit fifth (per our Lineups page), Kemp has a recent batted-ball distance of 238 feet — good for a differential of +27 feet — and a Recent Batted Ball Luck of +37. Historically, similarly unlucky batters with comparable lineup spots, Statcast data, and distance differentials have produced a +2.94 Plus/Minus and 52.6% Consistency Rating.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Charlie Morton
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
