This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Caleb Smith: Pitcher, Marlins
Smith is one of the most intriguing pitchers on today’s slate. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.22 through his first four starts this season, and his K/9 of 11.63 is the top mark among all of today’s pitchers. He leads the slate with a K Prediction of 7.4, yet he’s priced down at just $4,500 on DraftKings. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have a Consistency Rating of 57.1% and an Upside Rating of 16%. There are, though, a few negatives with Smith. He’s a slight underdog, and the Rockies’ implied team total of 4.1 runs is tied for the fourth-highest mark on the slate:
The Statcast data from his two previous starts is also concerning, particularly his batted-ball average distance of 231 feet. He has upside at his current price tag, but he’s probably best suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) only.
Manuel Margot: Outfielder, Padres
Underpriced leadoff hitters are typically preferred targets of the high-stakes DFS players. On yesterday’s slate, Jesse Winker owned one of the highest volatility ratings on DraftKings at $3,300 (per the Ownership Dashboard):
Margot could be that player on today’s slate. He’s facing Mets left-hander Jason Vargas, and Margot has posted a .339 wOBA and .182 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. He’s also crushed the ball over the past 15 days with a 234-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 70% hard-hit rate. He hasn’t had much fantasy success over that time frame, but that’s probably due simply to bad luck, given his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +76 on DraftKings. He could be due for some progression.
Jose Altuve: Second Base, Astros
Altuve is one of the best hitters in the game, and he’s in particularly good form at the moment. He’s posted an average distance of 228 feet over his past 14 games, good for a differential of +23 feet when compared to his 12-month average. The Astros are implied for a slate-high 5.2 runs, and batters with comparable implied team totals, lineup spots, and distance differentials have historically been nice values (per the Trends tool):
He’s taking on A’s right-hander Daniel Mengden, and Altuve has posted a .399 wOBA and .194 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He’s been priced down to just $4,200 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 70%.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Caleb Smith
Photo credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports
