This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Jacob deGrom: Pitcher, Mets
deGrom appears to be in a nice spot today. The opposing Giants are implied for a slate-low 3.3 runs, and the Mets have slate-high moneyline odds of -161. deGrom also sports a K Prediction of 7.8, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. Pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have historically provided solid value on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
However, DeGrom also has some terrifying Statcast data over the last 15 days. He’s allowing hard contact on 48 percent of balls put in play — the second-highest mark among today’s starters — and an average batted ball distance of 243 feet, which is 31 feet more than his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of -4.03 on FanDuel. Given his Vegas data, DeGrom will likely be one of the chalkiest pitchers in guaranteed prize pools, but there’s some merit to fading him.
Trevor Cahill: Pitcher, Padres
One pitcher who could be an intriguing pivot from DeGrom is Cahill, who has had an excellent start to the season. He’s struck out at least six batters in all five of his starts, averaging a ridiculous +10.88 Plus/Minus and 100 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings. He’s also been a “sharp” target, being rostered more heavily in his last start by high-stakes players than their low stakes counterparts (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Cahill has averaged 10.81 strikeouts per nine innings over the past twelve months, and the projected Rangers lineup has whiffed in 30.9 percent of its at-bats against right-handed pitchers over the same time period. With a slate high K-Prediction of 8.9, friendly Park Factor of 82, and high recent pitch count of 111, Cahill is comparable to a historical cohort of pitchers with a Plus/Minus of +3.27 on DraftKings. As of writing there’s no Vegas data available for this game, but as long as Cahill isn’t a massive underdog he appears to have plenty of upside for GPPs.
Brett Gardner: Outfielder, Yankees
The Cubs are on the road against the Rockies, so naturally those teams have the slate’s highest implied totals, but right behind them are the Yankees, who are implied for five runs (per the Vegas Dashboard):
One Yankee who stands out is Gardner, who leads off for the team and has crushed the ball recently. Over the last 15 days he’s outhit his 12-month batted ball distance by 62 feet, and players with comparable implied team totals and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.76 on DraftKings. A Gardner-led Yankees stack grades out well in our Player Models and can be incorporated easily into DFS lineups using the Lineup Builder.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
