This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Zach Greinke: Pitcher, Diamondbacks
Greinke has been awesome to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.72 on FanDuel over his first nine starts, and he looks to be in another good spot today. He’s one of the slate’s leaders in K Prediction (7.2) and moneyline odds (-192), and pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically provided excellent value (per our Trends tool):
Greinke has a nice matchup against a projected White Sox lineup that has struck out in 30.2 percent of its at-bats and has a slate-worst .275 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months, but there are a couple causes for concern. First, Greinke is at home, where he has struggled as a Diamondback with a -4.45 FanDuel Plus/Minus home/away differential. Second, Greinke has bad recent Statcast data: His batted ball distance differential is +33 feet, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck score is a slate-worst -97. He could be in line for some regression.
Jake Lamb: Third Base, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lead the slate with a Team Value Rating of 78 on FanDuel, and per the Vegas Dashboard they also have the highest implied team total of the day:
No one on the Diamondbacks has better Statcast data than Lamb, who has crushed the ball recently. Over the last 15 days he has an average batted ball distance of 278 feet, and batters with comparable team totals and distance averages have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.33 on FanDuel, where Lamb has a position-high Bargain Rating of 95 percent. Lamb and his teammates will likely have high ownership rates (which Pro Subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard), but Diamondback stacks can likely still be made profitably and easily with our Lineup Builder.
Seth Smith: Outfielder, Orioles
The Orioles trail only the Diamondbacks in implied total. Per the Lineups page, Smith is currently projected to bat leadoff for them:
Over the last 15 days, Smith has a batted ball differential of +22 feet, and leadoff hitters with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.35 on DraftKings. If we factor in implied team totals, the Plus/Minus increases to +1.51. As a relatively cheap leadoff hitter on a potentially high-scoring team, Smith grades out as one of the top hitters in our Player Models.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
