This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Carlos Carrasco: Pitcher, Indians
Carrasco is priced above $10,000 on both sites, but his current data supports the lofty price tag: He leads the slate in K Prediction (8.0) and opponent implied team total (3.3 runs), and he has the second-best moneyline odds (-160). Per the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have historically provided solid value on FanDuel:
What really stands out is the strikeout data. Over the last 12 months, Carrasco has averaged 9.43 strikeouts per nine innings, the second-highest mark on the slate, and the projected Rays lineup has whiffed in 30.3 percent of its at-bats against right-handed pitchers. Carrasco also has a Bargain Rating of 82 percent on FanDuel, which is the top mark among all pitchers.
Jay Bruce: Outfielder, Mets
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Mets:
The Mets are traveling to the hitter-friendly Chase Field, where batters have enjoyed the third-highest average Plus/Minus over the last three seasons. Among the Mets, Bruce in particular is in good form with an average batted ball distance of 242 feet over his last 12 games. Batters at Chase with comparable recent distances have posted a historical Plus/Minus of +2.44 on DraftKings and an Upside Rating of 27 percent. Bruce leads the slate with seven Pro Trends, and the Mets have the day’s third-highest implied team total at 4.7 runs.
Kendrys Morales: First Base, Blue Jays
Team Value Rating is a FantasyLabs metric that measures which teams offer the most value based on their implied team totals and current player salaries. You can sort by TVR using the Vegas Dashboard, and no team on today’s DraftKings slate has a higher rating than the Blue Jays at 83:
The Blue Jays have been one of the worst offensive teams to start the season, averaging the seventh-fewest runs per game, but they have quietly started to turn things around, scoring at least seven runs in three of their last five games. They currently have the highest implied team total of the day at 4.9 runs. Morales is especially hitting well with an average batted ball distance of 250 feet over the last 15 days, which is 29 feet greater than his 12-month average. Batters with comparable distance differentials and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.39 on DraftKings. Given the Blue Jays early struggles, they could have relatively low ownership, which Pro subscribers can review after lineup lock using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
