The Three Key MLB Players series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze . . . three key MLB players in the day’s slate. This series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Andrew Benintendi: Outfielder, Red Sox
With so many stud pitchers available on Opening Day, finding cheap hitters is imperative. At $3,700, Benintendi has one of the highest FantasyLabs ownership projections in our Player Models, where Pro subscribers can see the overall ratings for each player in the slate. Benintendi is likely to be popular for a reason, as the Red Sox boast a slate-high implied total of 5.1 runs and he’s expected to hit second for the Red Sox. (Check out all of our batting order projections in our Lineup tool.)
No. 1 hitters priced between $3,200 and $4,200 on teams implied to score between 4.6 and 5.6 runs have typically provided value with a +1.42 Plus/Minus. However, it’s currently cold (48 degrees) in Boston, giving the Red Sox-Pirates game a Weather Rating of nine. Even batters on teams with implied totals of 4.6-5.6 tend to suffer with Weather Ratings between four and 14 (per our Trends tool):
On top of that, Benentendi also has a Bargain Rating of only 29 percent on DraftKings. His exposure is likely best limited to FanDuel, and some fade consideration is probably warranted in guaranteed prize pools.
Billy Hamilton: Outfielder, Reds
Most casual DFS players tend to focus on power stats, so non-power hitters can sometimes fly under the radar. For example, in Sunday’s slate Giants leadoff hitter Denard Span was someone the high stakes “sharps” were on at a higher rate then the rest of the field (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Hamilton, a base stealer with little power, could find himself in a similar situation on Monday, as the Reds currently have the slate’s fifth-highest implied run total (4.4). He’s also expected to bat first, where he’s historically produced a +1.42 DraftKings Plus/Minus when the Reds have been implied for 3.9-4.9 runs. Additionally, projected Phillies starting catcher Cameron Rupp only threw out a minuscule 27 percent of opposing base stealers last season. If Hamilton can get on base, the green light should be on, as he leads the slate with 0.487 stolen bases per game over the last 12 months.
Clayton Kershaw: Pitcher, Dodgers
Even with all 24 teams in the slate throwing their best pitchers today, Kershaw is in a class of his own.
Kershaw: DFS Scouting Report
He had a career best WHIP of .725 last season, averaging 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
If that wasn’t enough, he draws an amazing matchup against the Padres, who struck out a slate-high 28.4 percent against lefties last season and had a weighted on base average of only .209. They’re projected to score only two runs against Kershaw, and the Dodgers are currently the biggest favorites on the slate with a moneyline of -367 (per our Vegas Dashboard):
Within our database pitchers with moneylines of -317 to -417 have previously dominated: +7.71 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, +7.16 on FanDuel. Of course, they’ve also had 35.2 and 35.0 percent ownership. We’re projecting Kershaw to have the highest ownership in the slate.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
