This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Brandon McCarthy: Pitcher, Dodgers
There’s no true stud pitcher in this slate, but one option who stands out is McCarthy. At $7,000 on FanDuel, he’s a strong favorite with a -150 moneyline and a K Prediction of 7.5. Pitchers with comparable Vegas odds and strikeout projections have historically provided some solid value (per our Trends tool):
Its early in the season, but McCarthy also has some strong Statcast numbers through his first two starts. He’s increased his ground ball percentage to a slate-high 50 percent on the season, and as a result he’s seen a decrease in both his hard hit percentage and batted ball distance allowed. He also gets to pitch at Dodger Stadium, which is a top-10 venue in pitcher friendliness, and he has a FanDuel Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Freddie Freeman: First Base, Braves
The Red Sox have the highest implied team total of the day at 5.2 runs, but they’re available only in the all-day slate. On the main slate, we’ve got a trio of teams implied for 4.8 runs — the Indians, Astros, and Braves (per the Vegas Dashboard):
The Braves have not been an offensive juggernaut in the past, so this kind of implied team total is a bit of an outlier. However, in the 38 instances in which they’ve been implied for 4.4-5.2 runs, Freeman has provided a strong +3.39 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Freeman has also scored at least five DraftKings points in eight straight games, which gives him a solid floor for cash games.
Matthew Joyce: Outfield, Athletics
With our Lineup Builder, its easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. As of writing, the highest-rated five-man stack on DraftKings per the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Astros, but right behind them is a five-man stack of the A’s that costs nearly $6,000 less:
This stack of Oakland’s projected 1-2-3-4-6 hitters might seem uninspiring, as the A’s are currently 24th out of 30 teams in runs scored. However, they’ve also been unlucky, perhaps no one more so than Joyce, who has crushed the ball recently, increasing his batted ball distance by 24 feet this season. Despite his batting performance, his fantasy production has lagged, yielding a Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of 80. Historically, batters with comparable batted ball differentials and Recent BBL Scores have provided an average Plus/Minus on DraftKings of +1.40.
Additionally, Oakland batters will likely carry relatively low ownership, which Pro subscribers can check after lineup lock in the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
