This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Danny Duffy: Pitcher, Royals
Today’s slate is just four games, and amazingly the cheapest pitcher actually possesses the top ceiling projection in our MLB Models. Duffy is priced at just $4,700 on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98%, and his K Prediction of 6.1 ranks second on the slate. He’s also in good recent Statcast form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -18 feet. He’s averaged 110 pitches per start in his past two outings, and pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, distance differentials, and recent pitch counts have historically been nice values (per our Trends tool):
His Vegas data makes him tough to trust for cash games — he has an opponent implied team total of 5.0 runs and moneyline odds of +165 — but he makes a lot of sense for guaranteed prize pools.
Joe Panik: Second Base, Giants
Cheap leadoff hitters are always appealing in daily fantasy baseball, and Panik fits that description. He’s priced at just $3,000 on DraftKings and currently slated atop the projected Giants lineup:
He’s taking on Diamondbacks right-hander Zach Godley, who has allowed a dreadful average exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 54% over his past two starts. Panik has a splits advantage against Godley, and he owns a .354 wOBA and .157 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s played only two games since coming off the disabled list, but he’s posted solid differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate in those appearances.
Mike Trout: Outfield, Angels
Trout is locked in at the dish right now, and the high-stakes players are taking notice. He had one of the highest volatility ratings in our DFS Ownership Dashboard the last time he was available on the main slate:
He’s long been the best player in the game, but Trout is putting together arguably his most impressive season this year. He owns a .467 wOBA through his first 59 games and leads all batters in WAR by a significant amount on both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. He’s been in particularly good form over his past 12 games, posting an average distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 51%. Trout has historically been a reverse-splits hitter — he’s a righty who hits right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching — but he’s still slugged a .400 wOBA and .217 ISO against left-handers over the past 12 months. He has immense upside against Duffy and should be extremely popular on a slate with no stud pitcher.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Danny Duffy
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA Today Sports
