This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Caleb Smith: Pitcher, Marlins
Today’s slate features a bunch of strong pitching options. Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer and Jacob deGrom stand out among the expensive options, but Smith could provide similar upside at a fraction of the cost. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.4 over the past 12 months, and the projected Giants lineup has struck out in 26.4% of at-bats vs. left-handers over the same time frame. The result is a K Prediction of 8.0, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries ($7,800) have historically been nice values on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
Smith scored just 10.85 DraftKings points against the Giants in his most recent start, but his short-term Statcast data is still encouraging, yielding negative differentials in both distance and exit velocity when compared to his 12-month averages.
Amed Rosario: Shortstop, Mets
The Mets are one of the most intriguing teams on today’s slate. On the one hand, they’re facing a left-handed pitcher in Tyler Anderson, and they’ve been the worst team in the league against southpaws by a significant margin this season. On the other hand, they’re playing at Coors Field, which obviously increases their offensive potential. One Met worthy of consideration is Rosario, who is projected to occupy the leadoff spot at just $2,800:
Comparably priced leadoff hitters have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.88 at Coors Field and commanded an average ownership of 18.0%. Rosario is on the positive side of his batting splits against Anderson, owning a .305 wOBA and .189 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He leads all position players on DraftKings with a Bargain Rating of 94% and will likely be one of the most popular options today.
Jose Ramirez: Third Base, Indians
Even though this is a Coors slate, no team possesses a higher implied team total than the Indians:
They’re taking on White Sox right-hander Dylan Covey, and the Indians have posted a .333 wOBA against right-handers since May 1. Ramirez in particular has destroyed right-handed pitching over the past 12 months with a .416 wOBA and .314 ISO. He’s also made elite contact over his past 12 games with a 257-foot batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. Batters with comparable recent Statcast data and implied totals have historically crushed, averaging a Plus/Minus of +1.84 and 11.48 DraftKings points. He is expensive but offers one of the highest ceilings in our MLB Models.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Amed Rosario
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA Today Sports
