This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Stephen Strasburg: Pitcher, Nationals
Paying all the way up for Strasburg could be the path of least resistance, and he is much more affordable on FanDuel with his 99% Bargain Rating. The opposing Padres are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard), and Strasburg has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.96 through his first eight starts. His K/9 of 11.12 is the top mark among all of today’s pitchers, and unsurprisingly he sports a massive slate-leading 10.2 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparably immaculate Vegas data and K Predictions have smashed on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
The highest-priced pitcher across both sites, Strasburg also has some ridiculous Statcast data, including a batted-ball distance of 212 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 31% and 20%. On a slate with an exorbitant number of inexperienced pitchers, Strasburg will be chalky against a Padres lineup that leads the slate with a 30.5% SO/AB rate.
Andrew McCutchen: Outfielder, Giants
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Giants, who are implied for 4.6 runs and could be a strong contrarian stack:
The line has already moved in their favor, and they have a lot of upside against Phillies righty Zach Eflin, who owns a slate-low 1.669 WHIP and slate-high 2.857 HR/9.
Andrew McCutchen has been crushing the baseball as of late, boasting an average distance of 257 feet, exit velocity of 97 mph, and hard-hit rate of 51 percent. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him a distance differential of +42 feet, velocity differential of +6 mph, and hard-hit differential of +13 percentage points. His +38 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that he is hitting the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates. Batters with comparable implied totals, lineup spots, and Statcast data have historically averaged 10.76 DraftKings points with a +2.16 Plus/Minus, 7.1% ownership rate, and 17% Upside Rating.
John Hicks: First Baseman/Catcher, Tigers
Like the Giants, the Tigers are also an intriguing stacking option. They’re taking on Rangers right-hander Matt Moore, who in his last start was roasted for 11 hits (including three homers) and 10 earned runs over just four innings. The Tigers lineup is also very affordable, as only three players own salaries above $3,500 on DraftKings:
Moore has the worst recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 248-foot average distance, 99-mph exit velocity, and 59% hard-hit rate. With both Jeimer Candelario and Nick Castellanos questionable, it’s possible that John Hicks — projected to hit sixth (per our Lineups page) — could be bumped up in the order. His recent Statcast data jumps off the page with a batted-ball distance of 254 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 52% with impressive differentials of +50 feet, +6 mph, +15 percentage points over the past 15 days.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Stephen Strasburg
Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
