This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Bryce Harper: Outfielder, Nationals
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top early-slate stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Nationals, one of five teams implied for 4.8 runs or more (per our Vegas Dashboard):
The Nationals have a prime matchup against struggling Orioles righty Alex Cobb, who allowed six runs on eight hits in fewer than four innings during his last start.
Projected to bat second, Harper stands out as one of the highest-rated batters in the early slate with solid Statcast data, and he’s also on the positive side of his splits with an exceptional .420 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .310 isolated power (ISO) against righties over the past 12 months. Historically, hitters with similar Vegas data, lineup spots and peripheral stats have averaged a +1.25 DraftKings Plus/Minus per our Trends tool.
Vincent Velasquez: Pitcher, Phillies
With Coors Field expected to siphon a significant portion of ownership on the short main slate, Velasquez is an intriguing option at pitcher. The opposing Dodgers are implied for 4.3 runs, and Velasquez is a +115 underdog, but he sports a slate-leading K Prediction of 7.2. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions historically have provided solid value on DraftKings in a similar salary range:
One issue with Velasquez is his recent form. Over his last two games he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 222 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 46%. That said, Velasquez will take on a Dodgers team whose projected lineup has a putrid strikeout rate of 30.3% against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, so he certainly has upside in guaranteed prize pools.
Brandon Belt: First Base, Giants
The Giants are experiencing some positive reverse line movement this morning and could be popular against Rockies righty Chad Bettis at Coors Field with a voluminous 5.6-run implied total:
Projected to hit cleanup, Belt stands out as arguably the main slate’s top batting option. He has unreal Statcast numbers, including a recent batted-ball distance of 256 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard-hit rate of 51%. Belt is one of three batters today with double-digit Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he’s also on the positive side of his splits, sporting an impressive .395 wOBA and .260 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Brandon Belt
Photo credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
