This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Carlos Carrasco: Pitcher, Indians
There are a few intriguing pitching options today, but Carrasco really stands out. Since 2014, Carrasco has been more effective on the road than at home when the Indians are favored, averaging 42.6 FanDuel points per game with a +10.30 Plus/Minus, massive 76% Consistency Rating, and reduced 11.7% ownership rate in:
Carrasco’s 1.18 WHIP and 10.56 K/9 over the past 12 months are top-three on the slate, but he is taking the mound against a projected Tigers lineup that owns a low 22.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. That said, his strikeout metrics remain favorable (7.4 K Prediction), the Tigers are implied for just 3.3 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard), and the Indians check in as the largest favorite on the night (-240 moneyline odds). He is much more affordable on FanDuel with his 98% Bargain Rating, and similarly priced pitchers with a comparable strikeout and Vegas data have historically provided an absurd +17.68 Plus/Minus and 95.2% Consistency Rating.
Daniel Descalso: Third Base, Diamondbacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. While Indians and Red Sox stacks could be chalky with implied totals of 5.3 and 5.0 runs, the Diamondbacks (implied for 4.4 runs) could be a pivot:
Arizona has the pleasure of facing Brewers righty Junior Guerra, who has some of the slate’s worst Statcast data with a recent batted-ball distance of 241 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 48%. On top of his brutal Statcast data, Guerra owns a bottom-three 1.475 HR/9.
Daniel Descalso stands out as one of the highest-rated batters in the slate with immaculate Statcast data and a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +56. Historically (per our Trends tool), batters with comparable lineup spots, implied team totals, and Statcast data have produced a Plus/Minus of +1.12. Similar RBBLs boost the Plus/Minus to +2.84.
Mookie Betts: Outfielder, Red Sox
The Red Sox are far from sneaky, as they trail only the Indians with their implied team total of 5.0, but no player has a higher ceiling than Betts in our Models:
He’s the most expensive batter on DraftKings, but paying up could be worth it, as Betts has been crushing the baseball lately, boasting a recent average distance of 244 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard-hit rate of 42%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of +29 feet, +3 mph, and +5 percentage points. Batters with comparable lineup spots, Statcast differentials, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.77 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an impressive 56.8% Consistency Rating and 16% Upside Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Carlos Carrasco
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
