This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Zack Greinke: Pitcher, Diamondbacks
There are a few interesting pitching options on Monday’s slate, but Greinke arguably possesses more strikeout upside than anyone. At home against the Dodgers, who are implied for a middling 4.2 runs, Greinke boasts a stellar 9.0 K Prediction, and the Angels have a deliciously bad 0.289 SO/AB. Historically, pitchers with similar K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +1.70 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 57.0 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
Greinke has a slate-best 1.075 WHIP over the past 12 months, but his 45% hard-hit rate isn’t exactly ideal for cash games. With other high-priced options in the slate, Greinke’s unlikely to have exorbitant ownership, but he carries immense upside in guaranteed prize pools given his strikeout projection and Vegas data.
Brad Miller: First Base, Rays
Team Value Rating (TVR) is a FantasyLabs metric that measures the value a team offers based on its implied total and player salaries. On today’s DraftKings slate, the Rays are tied for the second-highest TVR:
Tampa Bay currently has only the fifth-highest implied team total of the day at 4.7, but Miller (projected to bat cleanup per our Lineups page) stands out as an intriguing mid-range option in our Player Models. Miller has crushed the ball recently with a batted-ball distance of 259 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and fly-ball rate of 50%. Batters with comparable salaries, lineup spots, and Statcast data have a strong historical Plus/Minus of +2.68 on DraftKings.
Miller hasn’t had much short-term fantasy success, but that’s probably due simply to bad luck, as evidenced by his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +68 on DraftKings. He could be due for some progression.
Mookie Betts: Outfielder, Red Sox
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Red Sox, who are implied for a slate-leading 5.5 runs against Royals right-hander Jason Hammel:
Betts — who is questionable with a hamstring injury believed to be minor — has unreal recent Statcast data with a batted-ball distance of 249 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 54% and 51%. If he does suit up, Betts will likely be a core player in Red Sox stacks, as he leads the slate with eight Pro Trends. Hitters batting near the top of the order with comparable metrics and Vegas data have historically averaged a +5.58 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Zack Greinke
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
