This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Stephen Strasburg: Pitcher, Nationals
There are plenty of pitching options to consider, but Strasburg stands out. He’s currently the slate’s biggest favorite with a -166 moneyline favorite, and he also boasts a K Prediction of 8.4. The results on FanDuel for pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically been pretty good (per our Trends Tool):
Additionally, Strasburg has solid Statcast data over the last 15 days. His 15-day batted ball distance and hard hit rate are both lower than his 12-month averages, and he’s also throwing the ball harder. Finally, Strasburg historically crushes the Phillies, racking up a +9.71 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in 18 starts against them since 2013.
Charlie Blackmon: Outfielder, Rockies
The Rockies are at home against the Diamondbacks, which puts both teams squarely on the radar. Per the Vegas Dashboard, both teams lead the slate with implied team totals of 5.3 runs:
One guy hitting well of late is Blackmon, whose 15-day batted ball distance and hard hit rate are higher than his 12-month numbers. Batters with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.06 on DraftKings at Coors Field — +2.79 if they bat in the top third of the order. Blackmon has a 12-month wOBA of .418 and ISO of .294 against right-handed pitchers — both elite marks on the slate — and he occupies the key leadoff spot. He’s one of the top hitters in our Player Models.
Andrew Benintendi: Outfielder, Red Sox
Coors Field will likely dominate ownership in guaranteed prize pools, which makes a team like the Red Sox an intriguing pivot. They currently have the third-highest implied total at 4.9 runs and were a favorite of the high-stakes players yesterday (May 4). Benintendi in particular had a positive Volatility Rating (per the Ownership Dashboard):
Benintendi has plenty working in his favor at the moment. He has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent on DraftKings and is projected to bat in the top third of the order (per our Lineup page). Batters with comparable implied totals, Bargain Ratings, and lineup spots have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.15 on DraftKings. With a 15-day batted ball distance 18 feet higher than his 12-month average, Benintendi is in good form. If his batted ball differential is added to the previous trend, the Plus/Minus jumps to +1.86. A Red Sox stack with Benintendi grades out well in our Player Models and can be incorporated easily into rosters via the Lineup Builder.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
