This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Alex Wood: Pitcher, Dodgers
Pitch count permitting, Wood is in a nice spot today. The opposing Marlins are implied for just 3.2 runs, and the Dodgers have slate-high moneyline odds of -227. Wood also sports a relatively rare K Prediction of 9.9, which historically provides tremendous value on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
Further, Wood’s Statcast data is elite: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 166 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 15 percent. Pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have a historical Plus/Minus of +6.53 on FanDuel. Although he still might be on a pitch count, Wood has averaged 90 pitches per outing in his last three games. His massive strikeout upside and Statcast data make him a strong candidate in guaranteed prize pools.
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
Each slate is different, but in Sale’s last main slate appearance (May 7) high-stakes GPP players rostered him at an alarming rate (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Sale has a Bargain Rating of 85 percent on FanDuel, but he’s still expensive overall with the highest salary on both platforms. The opposing A’s are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs, and the Red Sox have the slate’s second-highest moneyline odds at -193. At the same time, Sale’s Statcast data is concerning. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 251 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 60 percent, all of which are well above his 12-month averages. Sale’s Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of -98 suggests that he’s gotten lucky lately, but it’s hard to be concerned with a pitcher who’s struck out at least 10 batters in seven straight starts.
Carlos Correa: Shortstop, Astros
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Projected to hit fourth (per our Lineups page), Correa is a key player in one of the top five-man DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model:
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Astros are implied for a respectable 4.7 runs, and Correa has strong Statcast data with a recent batted ball distance of 236 feet and exit velocity of 93 miles per hour. Batters with comparable lineup spots, implied totals, and Statcast data have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.23 on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
