This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Brian Dozier: Second Baseman, Dodgers
Through nine games the Twins are tied for first in the A.L. Central, and Dozier is a big part of their success. He’s one of the new breed of leadoff hitters who can provide some power and specialize in getting on base. Over the past 12 months, Dozier has averaged a 45 percent fly ball rate — the second-highest mark among all second basemen in Friday’s slate. Dozier is a right-handed hitter with reverse splits, which works to our advantage today, as he faces righty Dylan Covey at home, a situation in which he’s historically thrived:
Per our Trends tool, we see that Dozier has averaged a strong +3.32 Plus/Minus against righties at home since 2016. Ironically, his ownership against righties (11 percent) is lower than against lefties, so he’s likely to be available at an ownership discount.
Mike Moustakas: Third Baseman, Royals
Moustakas is currently slated to hit second in the Royals’ projected lineup. He’s historically dominated lefties, with .238 ISO and .143 wOBA Differentials over the past 12 months — the second-highest marks among all third basemen in the slate. Per our Vegas Dashboard, Moustakas could find himself in a high-scoring contest, as the Angels-Royals currently game has the slate’s highest over/under:
Amazingly, the Royals have the highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and Moustakas is a key player in potential Royals stacks. With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters, and the Royals provide solid value across the industry. We know batters have more DFS value the higher in the batting order they are, and Moustakas combines opportunity with positive splits and a good situation. He’s currently one of our highest-rated players. (Pro subscribers can review the rest of our ratings in the Player Models.)
Clayton Kershaw: Pitcher, Dodgers
There are several fine pitching options today, including Stephen Strasburg and Noah Syndergaard, but Kershaw will always be the center of attention when he’s on the mound. He has the slate’s highest salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, although his $12,600 price tag on FanDuel comes with an 82 percent Bargain Rating. Despite the high salary, he’s unlikely to be available at an ownership discount:
The above ownership percentages (via our DFS Ownership Dashboard) are from Kershaw’s last start (April 8) against the Rockies . . . in Colorado. Even though he was the highest-owned player in every contest, he still had the slate’s highest GPP Grade, indicating that he was a quality tournament play. Today he faces the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium, where he’s averaged 50.4 FanDuel points per game with an +11.3 Plus/Minus and 78 percent Consistency Rating since 2014. He’s the chalk.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
